The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn and Harman Dayal discuss the respective positions in the “contention cycle” of each and every NHL team, and here’s what they have to say about the Red Wings:
WINDOW OPENING
Present Outlook (Rating: 4.4)
Last year the Red Wings faced important questions regarding whether the core they were building would be strong enough. Since then, we’ve gotten some answers. Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond both took big steps forward, entrenching themselves in Tier 3 and joining Dylan Larkin. Both flashed Tier 2 upside and one or both taking that step will be the key to Detroit jumping over the Present Rating line toward the bona fide playoff teams. The other consideration is Simon Edvinsson, who debuts in 5B. How far he can climb, and whether another Red Wing can debut next season, can also dictate where Detroit lands. For now, based on their stars, it’s still on the outside looking in.
Future Outlook (Rating: 8.7)
The Red Wings have chosen with their drafting and the core they’ve committed to try to win more like the Blues did — as a top-to-to-bottom team of like-minded players — rather than with the star power that drove the Panthers, Avalanche and Lightning. Red Wings fans will remind you that their poor lottery luck may have forced them down that path, too, and they’d have a point. But where they are is still where they are, and that’s with a cast of very good players and prospects but missing a Tier 1/2 guy (or three). Even if a Raymond or a Seider can move into the bottom of Tier 2, that probably won’t be enough either. Edvinsson looks like a stud and should help them go from the playoff fringes into the wild-card as he continues to establish himself as a No. 2 D. Marco Kasper took an important step last year. Carter Bear’s going to be a real player for them in the Zach Hyman mold. Nate Danielson is on his own path to becoming an NHLer. They should have their goalie of the future in one of Trey Augustine or Sebastian Cossa. But they don’t have a truly elite, drag-you-to-a-Cup player and they don’t have one of the very few prospects in the game who can become that. That’s going to make contending with the current powers in the Atlantic tough in the short and medium term, and leaves them behind the Habs in terms of future outlook in the long term as well.
Path to contention
There’s a reason the 2019 Blues were a lightning-in-a-bottle anomaly. Is it possible to win with that kind of team? Sure. Is it harder to pull off than on the back of the league’s true horses? There shouldn’t be any debating that anymore. It’s harder. The Red Wings are going to have to be deeper than everybody else and put on their big-boy pants when it matters most.
Continued (paywall); we can always hope…
🆕 at @TheAthleticNHL: The Contention Cycle.
— Scott Wheeler (@scottcwheeler) September 17, 2025
Combining Player Tiers and Prospect Tiers to model where teams are and where they’re going.
With @domluszczyszyn. pic.twitter.com/vHLDmzJ6ag
