The trade rumors regarding Pittsburgh Penguins forwards Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell have been stirring since the start of the free agent period.
This week, both Pittsburgh Hockey Now’s Dan Kingerski and Bleacher Report’s Adam Gretz offered takes on the respective values of Rust and Rakell as consolation prizes for the teams that were unable to land a top-six forward via free agency.
This evening, we receive another take from the Pittsburgh Penguins’ press, via the Hockey News’s Kelsey Surmacz, and she believes that one of said players is worth a compensation package that includes one high or two late first-round draft picks.
According to Surmacz, the Penguins shouldn’t be interested in an offer from the Detroit Red Wings or any other team unless Penguins GM and President of Hockey Operations Kyle Dubas can get into the late 1st round at least once, if not twice:
It’s fair to wonder whether or not any of those “fringe” teams – such as the Detroit Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets, or Vancouver Canucks – would want to be in on someone like Rakell or Rust, both of whom Penguins’ GM and POHO Kyle Dubas is, likely, seeking a first-round pick for.
And if a first-round pick is his demand, that is understandable, considering the seasons that Rakell and Rust had. Rakell, 32, put together the best season of his NHL career in 2024-25, amassing 35 goals and 70 points, while Rust, 33, did the same with 31 goals and 65 points. Any team looking to get over the hump, or any contending team looking to add one more reliable finisher in their top-six, would love to have either player for three more seasons at around $5 million.
If those fringe teams aren’t willing to give up that asset, it’s understandable that Dubas would wait around to see who is willing to pony up. And, that likely leaves the true contenders.
While Rakell or Rust going to a contending team certainly makes sense, it’s key to remember that the presumed first-round pick coming back would, more than likely, not be anywhere near the lottery. And is it worth it to surrender both Rakell and Rust for two late-first-round picks?
Surmacz continues at considerable length, debating whether the Penguins should trade Rakell or Rust at all, given that the Pens hope to be on the fast track back toward competing for playoff spot in the next season or two.
Surmacz argues that the Pens should hold onto their two point-per-game players while developing their own prospects, unless and only unless the team can acquire a couple of 1st round picks plus additional compensation (Kingerski would argue a roster player and a “B+ prospect,” while Gretz would suggest a top prospect).
Obviously, all of this is mid-summer conjecture, but I don’t think that Kingerski, Gretz or Surmacz are either a) disreputable or b) all that far off in terms of assessing the value of the Pens’ scoring wingers.
We’re probably talking about Kingerski’s package, Gretz’s package, or Surmacz’s suggested compensation for two players who are still point-per-game players in their early 30’s, with term remaining on very palatable contracts.
All three authors are level-headed people, and they’re not bullshitting for clicks here.
Perhaps that’s why we aren’t seeing a trade for Rust or Rakell–because their respective values are so very sky-high among the free agency leftovers and dearth of trade targets remaining available in the summer marketplace.
