Out of 6 teams that happen to be competing for one of the Eastern Conference’s Wild Card spots, The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman suggests that the Red Wings are sit 4th in terms of their prospects of making the playoffs:
Detroit Red Wings
Record: 28-22-5, 61 points
Playoff odds: 25 percent
The case for: The Red Wings have been on a tear since the coaching change, with a 15-5-1 record and 0.738 points percentage.
The most notable improvements have come at five-on-five. The Red Wings are creating more offense, which should provide more substance to go along with their hot power play. And the team has tightened up on defense. There has been more emphasis on proactively stopping the rush and denying opponents entry so the team doesn’t get pinned back in their own zone as often. The team is allowing fewer shots and scoring chances back, and their goaltenders have benefited. A usage tweak has also contributed to that — the Red Wings’ best defenseman, Moritz Seider, isn’t getting buried in some of the toughest minutes in the league since the coaching change.
Since Todd McLellan took over, Seider isn’t the only cornerstone to trend up. Dylan Larkin has been revitalized; he has an average Game Score of 1.70 after middling at 0.77 under Derek Lalonde. Lucas Raymond has also jumped from an average of 1.00 to 1.48.
The case against: Management waited too long to make a change.
As impressive as the Red Wings’ turnaround is, why didn’t management act sooner? The signs were there — the five-on-five offense disappointed, the defense was flawed and the penalty kill was a disaster.
At the time of Lalonde and associate coach Bob Boughner’s dismissal, the Red Wings sat second to last in the Eastern Conference with a 13-17-4 record and lowly 0.441 point percentage. The roster may have flaws, but Detroit shouldn’t have fallen that far down the standings. And it could prove costly down the stretch. The Red Wings have the most challenging schedule strength ahead, so missing out on some of those ‘easier’ points from the early goings of the season may come back to bite them.
Continued (paywall); shit happens, The Red Wings tried to make the Lalonde marriage work as long as they could, and if that costs them, that costs them.
