The Athletic’s Max Bultman, Matthew Fairburn and Julian McKenzie, the correspondents for Detroit, Buffalo and Ottawa, respectively, posted a collective column which discusses why the teams on their respective beats might or might not make the playoffs–and what might happen if they don’t make the cut this spring. Here’s Bultman on the Red Wings:
Detroit Red Wings
Why will the Red Wings make the playoffs?
The biggest source of optimism is how close they came last year, missing by just a tie-breaker. They didn’t make any clear improvements to the roster this offseason, but if they can get the right steps forward from young players like Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson, then they could be right back in that mix again — and be better prepared for it, too. Health will be key, as losing Dylan Larkin for a long stretch last March ultimately led to a total collapse. But, in theory, the right internal improvements have the chance to push the Red Wings over the hump.
What could potentially hold them back from making the playoffs?
The same big issue as last year: team defense. Detroit did very little to address that weakness this offseason. The Red Wings will have a full season of Edvinsson, which should make a difference in time but will come with some early lumps as he adjusts to the NHL. And they brought in a defensive forward in Tyler Motte who should help too, considering how offensively tilted most of Detroit’s forward corps is. But even still, it’s just not a group that has proven it can defend well consistently. That was the biggest problem last year, and it’s been an early concern once again. Combine that with a whole lot of uncertainty in goal, and there’s a fairly clear path to a step back this season.
Who has to be the team’s best player for it to make the playoffs?
There’s no one single answer, as they need many things to go right. Last season showed that Larkin is still their most important player, as an engine and driver. But those internal improvements do feel like the make-or-break factor in their season, so I’ll pivot a bit and go with Seider, who could elevate the entire team by taking the next step in his growth. It’s no secret Seider took the toughest minutes in the NHL last year and is expected to get a similar workload this year. If he can take the step from surviving those minutes to outright winning them, it would go a long way for Detroit.
What’s next for this team if it doesn’t make the playoffs?
The expectations do seem higher for the Red Wings this year, which adds some more stakes than in past seasons. The answer here, though, really depends on the “how.” If the Red Wings can’t improve their defense and it leads to significant regression, then it’s entirely possible they could decide to go another direction behind the bench to try and shake things up. But if they do miss, the roster will surely be a big reason why, and that will require some more intricate reshaping next offseason.
Continued at length (paywall); I don’t believe that Steve Yzerman will be “in the hot seat” if the Wings can’t make the playoffs, but I do believe that there will be a coaching change, that there will be more significant roster changes, and that we’ll see Detroit’s “youth movement” expedited.
I’m crossing my fingers and hoping that “everything goes right”–or, at least, that the Red Wings will have luck with injuries, their special teams will self-correct, and that coach Lalonde will push the right buttons and receive the right responses from key players.
That’s a lot to ask for, though, so we’ll see. Detroit’s 1-and-2 three games into the season, and they face the New York Rangers and Igor Shesterkin again on Thursday (7 PM EDT on ESPN+/Hulu only), the Nashville Predators on Saturday (2 PM EDT on Bally Sports Detroit)…
And then the Red Wings face a slate of pain-in-the-ass teams competing for wild card spots in the Islanders, Devils and Sabres, before battling the Oilers and Jets to wrap up the month.
It’s a rough schedule, and the team is going to have to rise to the task. If they go over .500 and salvage points out of tied games, that will be a good start, but by now, you and I expect more. As we should.
