The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman discusses potential summer-of-2024 restricted free agents who could re-sign with their teams “early” this season, and she includes Moritz Seider (who is coming off his “entry-level” deal at the end of this season):
Cap space isn’t a big issue for the Red Wings. But will management want to go as big as possible this soon? Will Seider?
Looking back at [GM Steve] Yzerman’s track record sparks that question from Detroit’s side. He hasn’t consistently gone for the big contracts post-ELC to his stars. Victor Hedman and Steven Stamkos each signed five-year deals, before going for the maximum. Nikita Kucherov was signed to a bridge deal first, too. So if that is Yzerman’s pattern, maybe mid-term is the move.
Then there’s the player perspective: Would Seider be selling himself short, especially after he had a very slow start to 2022-23?
A shorter-term deal could be a two- or three-year contract worth a cap hit of around $5 million. Evolving-Hockey has a five-year deal at $6.5 million, on average. But how much would that raise the price of his next deal? That’s what could motivate Yzerman to push for more with a core piece. Then, a cap hit percentage of 10 and 11 could make sense, similar to other young No. 1s like Makar, Fox, Quinn Hughes, Miro Heiskanen and Charlie McAvoy. That would equate to a $9 million cap hit, which would line up with his market value.
Detroit may push it a little lower based on his last season, but the recent Jake Sanderson contract may have set the bar for a No. 1 upward of that $8 million benchmark. As long as Seider rebounds — which the Red Wings have to bet on — that market value should start climbing, raising the chance of him delivering positive value throughout the deal.
Continued (paywall); I can’t see Seider earning less than $8 million given that the Sanderson deal came along as a “comparable.”
