I know that some Red Wings fans are already freaking out about the fact that the Wings have yet to re-sign two players who could become unrestricted free agents in Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi.
I’m more of a, “Wait and see” person, and I assumed that both players’ extensions are both a) inevitable and b) difficult to negotiate, so I’ll only start worrying if both players are still un-signed come next January or February.
MLive’s Ansar Khan discusses the likely shape of a prospective Larkin extension this morning. Khan notes that Larkin has both changed his representatives in terms of player agencies and that Larkin has a no-trade clause in his current contract:
Coming off his most productive season since 2018-19, picking up 31 goals and 69 points in 71 games, Larkin is due for a sizeable bump from the $6.1 million cap hit on his current contract. Where does he slot in? That might not be sorted out until well into the season.
It wouldn’t be surprising if Larkin’s camp is seeking more than $9 million a year. According to capfriendly.com, 35 players currently have a cap hit of $9 million or more, including 10 centers.
Sam Reinhart of Florida isn’t one of them but has remarkably similar statistics as Larkin. Reinhart has 167 goals and 210 assists in 532 career games; Larkin has 147 goals and 211 assists in 504 games. Both have averaged .71 points per game. Both are 26 and drafted in 2014 (Reinhart second overall, Larkin 15th).
Reinhart signed a three-year deal one year ago that has a $6.5 million cap hit. Larkin will get much more than that, perhaps in the $8 million range.
If talks extend well into the season, Larkin’s performance could influence the cap figure. It likely will be an eight-year deal, the maximum term to which teams can sign their own players. Including the upcoming season, that would take the contract through the 2030-31 season when he’s 34.
Khan continues; bluntly speaking, I’d place the “odds” of Larkin being traded very low, at or under 5%, and numbers-wise, I’m guessing that he’ll earn $7-8 million per season.
I’m hoping its around 8×8 for the Captain. And no, I don’t expect that he’ll be going anywhere. I’d bet he’s a lifer as long as the team finds success.