The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn posted an article this morning which discusses which NHL teams “improved the most and improved the least” based on Luszczyszyn’s “Game Score Value Added” model, and it gives high marks to the Red Wings, Ben Chiarot signing included:
Wins Added: 6.0 wins
Salary Added: $24.2 million
In: Ville Husso, David Perron, Andrew Copp, Dominik Kubalik, Mark Pysyk, Austin Czarnik, Olli Maatta, Matt Luff, Ben Chiarot
Out: Olli Juolevi, Thomas Greiss, Marc Staal
The Detroit Red Wings balled out this summer spending big money in hopes of clawing out of the league’s basement and forging a path toward contention. No team saw a bigger increase in spending and it looks like it should be worth it because no team added more value either. With a 1.9-win gap between first and second, it wasn’t even close either.
The Red Wings didn’t lose much with three players who offered minimal value … if that. In their place, there are nine new notable faces who will inject some life into the lineup. Detroit’s issue has long been its depth and that should be alleviated heavily after a busy offseason.
Up front, David Perron and Andrew Copp are legitimate top-six talents that should immediately provide some depth scoring beyond the top line. Detroit has long depended on Dylan Larkin and his linemates to do it all. Now it doesn’t have to. Perron and Copp aren’t stars, but they move the needle and provide strong support. Add Dominik Kubalik to the mix and the top nine looks the scariest it has in a long time.
On defense, the changes aren’t as exciting but there’s hope. Mark Pysyk is an analytics darling that should do just fine on the team’s third pair, while Olli Maatta bounced back well last season. He has top-four potential if he can keep that up. Considering the money they’re giving him, the Red Wings are likely hoping Ben Chiarot is the big top-four piece needed to take this team to a higher level. The model is incredibly skeptical of that, but it’s nice knowing the team added six wins anyway despite Chiarot’s projected value dragging it down. If he can be as good as some suggest he is, that’s another win or so in Detroit’s ledger.
The team’s biggest add though comes in net with Ville Husso. Detroit took a calculated risk last offseason with Alex Nedeljkovic and it’s doing something similar with Husso. It’s another young goalie who got hot and showed starter potential. The duo has tremendous upside, but the small sample risk remains real for both. As long as one of them hits it’s a good bet though, giving Detroit some stability in net for the first time since the last time Jimmy Howard was good. Incidentally, that was the last time the team was any good. It’s been a long time coming, but the Red Wings are back on the rise.
Continued (paywall)…
