The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn posted a list ranking the NHL’s 32 teams based on their “contract efficiency” this morning. He ranks the Red Wings 20th overall based upon win probability and his “Game Score Value Added” model, with the Ben Chiarot signing earning a “D-” and the team earning a “C+”:
Last season: 15th
Everyone seems to love the Yzerplan and the Red Wings rebuild and the team has done some strong work towards getting to the next step. The David Perron signing this summer was extremely savvy and Dominik Kubalik is a decent bet at his price point too. The Jakub Vrana trade from two seasons prior was strong too and those three mark up Detroit’s best contracts.
But for the most part, there aren’t a lot of great deals on the books and the team hamstrung themselves a bit with two signings in particular this summer: Andrew Copp and Ben Chiarot. Copp is a nifty utility player, but the price tag and term are a bit much for what he offers. Chiarot is the bigger issue as he’s being paid to be a solid number three on the depth chart and is probably better suited to a third pair role. This model (and any other) isn’t very fond of what he brings to the table so Detroit gets a big ding for that, maybe bigger than it actually should. Still, those two deals represent Detroit’s longest cap commitments which aren’t ideal.
The Red Wings rank 20th here, but one massive advantage they have is having Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider on ELCs. That’s a huge bonus that no other team possesses. If those two counted, they would drive up the surplus value by a decent amount. Seider is already an $8 million calibre defender while Raymond is close to a $6 million forward.
Continued; I’m no fan of the Chiarot deal, but the Red Wings made an expensive investment in actual NHL depth this offseason, and I’m comfortable with the deals that Steve Yzerman made overall.
This is one person’s opinion as to how one values NHL contracts, albeit a very thorough one.
