EP Rinkside’s JFresh is something of an analytics wizard, and, this morning, the subscription website has offered an unlocked entry in which JFresh analyzes the free agency additions of three major players in the trade and unrestricted free agency marketplaces–the Ottawa Senators, Carolina Hurricanes, and Detroit Red Wings
JFresh’s analytical models suggest that the Red Wings will earn a much-better but out-of-the-playoff-mix 94 “projected standings points” this upcoming season, but he’s not particularly impressed by Steve Yzerman’s additions, nor the means by which Yzerman made the additions.
JFresh suggests that the Wings will only improve upon their moribund 2021-2022 season record by approximately ten points, despite the Wings’ additions of a significant number of secondary scorers, secondary defensemen and possibly a starting goaltender:
What do you do when your team has pretty much no middle-of-the-lineup players and a gigantic pile of cap space? Evidently, you simply buy yourself seven players.
General Manager Steve Yzerman‘s extreme patience while rebuilding the Red Wings has paid off in the form of at least one apparent franchise-level talent in Moritz Seider, but with the team having stagnated in the 70-74 point range for the most part since 2018 it did kind of appear as though the team was ambling along aimlessly.
Apparently, that time has come to an end. The Red Wings dumped a big pile of money on several solid free agents and essentially bought themselves a couple more wins in the short term.
He continues (I’m clipping the text as these articles are often re-locked; while I’m an optimist regarding the Red Wings’ level of improvement, I also believe that there’s still a youth movement going on, and I don’t know if that’s delusional at this point)…
Up front, the additions of Perron, Copp, and Kubalik may well constitute the purchase of a new second line. Perron’s ability to control the game from the perimeter, prevent opponents from creating chances, and score from distance will be a welcome addition, and the two-year term is beneficial as well. Copp’s deal might be a little rich but for the time being at least, but he should be capable of producing strong middle-six two-way results and solidifying their penalty kill. Finally, Kubalik’s signing is a bet on speed and shooting ability.
The additions are a little mixed on the blue line. I don’t love the choice of Chiarot as Seider’s partner on the top pair; the physical blueliner has almost always looked out of place in such a huge role as his weaknesses get magnified. But Määttä and Pysyk are two very useful defensive defencemen who represent solid upgrades on the sub-replacement players they’re usurping.
Finally, in acquiring Husso, the Red Wings have essentially replicated the move they made last offseason to bring in Alex Nedeljkovic. It’s a bet on a goalie with a strong pedigree who put together a very promising season, and while it improves their projection in the short term it remains to be seen whether either of those players will prove to be franchise-level goaltenders.
Overall, the Wings have undoubtedly built a better team this season than they had in the previous five. While I’m not as optimistic as the WAR model is, these changes should take them from a 73-point team to somewhere in the 80s.
Again, JFresh continues. It’s hard to say whether the Wings’ youth movement really continues, but I believe that the team added a lot of depth, not a bunch of star players, and as you know by now, I’m a big believer in the quality of the Wings’ stable of prospects.
