NHL.com’s Rob Vollman used advanced statistics to examine whether 32-year-old Mike Green’s trade value could be compared to last year’s belle of the deadline ball, now 28-year-old New York Rangers defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk. Here’s Vollman’s conclusion:
Green was transitioned into the No. 1 role in Detroit as the roster started to change. During the past two seasons, he has averaged 20:01 per game at 5-on-5, which ranks sixth among NHL defensemen.
This tougher role has taken a toll on Green’s shot-based metrics. In 2015-16, Detroit outshot opponents 1,097-891 when he was on the ice at 5-on-5, for an SAT of plus-206 that ranked No. 13 among NHL defensemen. In percentage terms, Detroit’s share of shot attempts rose from 50.57 percent to 55.18 when he was on the ice, for a Relative SAT of plus-4.61 that ranked No. 17 among defensemen who played at least 20 games.
Since Green was moved into the No. 1 role, his SAT of minus-199 is tied for No. 239, and his Relative SAT of minus-1.02 is tied for No. 158 among defensemen who played at least 20 games.
These results suggest that Green can handle a No. 1 role when necessary but is most effective when assigned a scoring-focused role like Shattenkirk. In that capacity, he should match Shattenkirk in every regard, except power-play scoring.
Shattenkirk’s trade also provides a clue as to what Detroit may be expecting in return for Green. St. Louis received forward Zach Sanford, a first-round pick, plus two conditional picks for Shattenkirk.
That package isn’t without precedent; it’s almost exactly what the Toronto Maple Leafs obtained from the Boston Bruins for defenseman Tomas Kaberle at the 2011 NHL Trade Deadline.