Talking about ‘re-drafts’ and Lucas Raymond’s potential

I’m not a fan of “re-drafts.” Even the best prospect experts in the world can’t capture the developmental curves of 18-year-old hockey players–NHL teams certainly don’t have a magic formula to gain draft success with every pick, either–because hockey is such a difficult sport to predict in terms of individual players coming out of various junior leagues in unfinished forms.

All of that being said, The Athletic’s draft expert, Scott Wheeler, has “re-drafted” the 2020 NHL Draft class, and he at least gives Lucas Raymond’s high-end potential some significant praise while suggesting that Raymond should have been drafted by the Ottawa Senators instead of the Detroit Red Wings (presuming that Tim Stuetzle went 1st overall):

3. Ottawa Senators: RW Lucas Raymond

Actual draft pick: No. 4 (change: +1) to Detroit
My final ranking: No. 5 (change: +2)

The only non-Stützle player on this list with two seasons in an NHL top six already, and the second-most productive player in the draft to only Stützle so far, we all know what Raymond is: a 20-goal, 50-to-60-point guy. For him to stay here, he’ll probably have to become slightly more than that and establish himself as the Red Wings’ 1RW and a perennial 70-point guy. I think he gets there. No real notes in terms of my ranking and evaluation at the time on this one. I was aligned with the consensus on him in terms of ranking and evaluation/projection.

Continued (paywall); as far as I’m concerned, Raymond will probably top out around 25 goals and 65 points a season, just short of Wheeler’s projections, but that’s me being a little conservative. I do believe that he’ll eventually be the Red Wings’ first-line right winger.

DHN’s Duff: Buchelnikov to play in for Russian Under-23 team

According to Detroit Hockey Now’s Bob Duff, Red Wings prospect Dmitri Buchelnikov may not know which team he’s playing for this upcoming season, but he will be spending August in Sochi, Russia, playing for the Russian Under-23 team:

Russia may still be banned from international hockey, but that won’t be preventing Detroit Red Wings draftee Dmitri Buchelnikov from representing his country.

Russia’s under-23 national team will be playing in the upcoming Sochi Tournament. The event is one of the biggest KHL preseason tourneys, often serving as a showcase for upcoming Russian talent. With the unveiling of the team selection earlier this week, Buchenikov’s name was on the list.

Buchelnikov, 19, also saw action in last season’s Sochi Tournament. Playing for the Russian U25 squad, he wound up collecting 3-2-5 totals through five games, earning him recognition as the top forward of the tournament. Two of his goals were game winners.

The player who Detroit made the 51st selection of the 2022 NHL entry draft is among nine SKA St. Petersburg players who were earning selection to the Russian U23 squad. The select team of young Russian stars will play games against Sochi (August 3), Admiral (August 5), Avangard (August 7) ​​and SKA (August 8).

Continued; the KHL basically plays a full month’s worth of preseason hockey in August, and, as Duff suggests, the Under-23 or Under-25 teams exist as a sort of equivalent to World Junior Championship-eligible teams.

Duff also notes that Buchelnikov’s future is somewhat murky; he’s under contract to SKA St. Petersburg, but he also played for the VHL’s SKA-Neva St. Petersburg (SKA’s roughly equivalent to a “second league” team) and the MHL’s SKA-1946 St. Petersburg (roughly equivalent to a Major Junior league team) last season.

He played in 10 games for the “big club” last season, but he only posted a goal and an assist, earning scant ice time.

His stats reflect not having any continuity last season, and it would be best for his development to be placed with one team this time around.

A bit about the 2023 World Junior Summer Showcase

Three Red Wings prospects will be taking part in the World Junior Summer Showcase in Plymouth, Michigan this upcoming weekend and next week.

The WJSS is basically a summer start-up for prospective World Junior Championship participants from the United States, Finland and Sweden, who play in a 4-team format (with the U.S. team split up into “USA White” and “USA Blue“) for games on July 29th, 31st, and August 2nd and 4th (with tickets for the games available at USA Hockey Arena and online).

There are also morning practices from July 27th through August 4th that are open to the public, though there’s usually at least one day over the course of the 9-day period in which the teams agree to give their players a day off the ice.

Red Wings prospects Axel Sandin Pellikka, Anton Johansson (both playing defense for Sweden) and Trey Augustine (playing in goal for “USA White“) are all participating; as the Hockey News’s Sam Stockton notes, several top prospects for the 2024 NHL Draft are taking part as well.

I will be attending the tournament as accredited media, and while I may not make every practice, I’m definitely going to be there for every game, so I’m likely to start up a gas-and-snacks fund for the purposes of offsetting expenses. I hope that’s okay with all of you.

It’s a great event in terms of both getting to see some of the best 2023-drafted and 2024 (and 2025) NHL Draft prospects participate in competitive games at USA Hockey Arena, the tickets are insanely cheap, and it’s something of a sneak peek at some prospects who won’t be playing for the Red Wings at the fall prospect tournament due to their commitments elsewhere.

I will say this: you also get to “rub shoulders” with executives from the vast majority of the NHL’s 32 teams there as they’re scouting their drafted and potential prospects as well, and a lot of families from the 2023 U.S. Under-17 and Under-18 teams show up as well.

For example, Brady and Matthew Tkachuk and their dad, Keith, who scouts for the St. Louis Blues, were in attendance for every game at the 2021 WJSS, and they’d sign autographs and what-not while watching games. It’s a sort of informal setting, but as long as you approach your prospects politely, they’re likely to sign something or just talk for a bit.

I hope to see you there!

DetroitRedWings.com’s Mills profiles Sebastian Cossa

DetroitRedWings.com’s Jonathan Mills filed a profile of Red Wings prospect Sebastian Cossa today:

Cossa spent most of his 2022-23 campaign with the Red Wings’ ECHL-affiliate Toledo Walleye, posting a 26-16-4 record with a 2.56 goals-against average, .913 save percentage and four shutouts in 46 regular-season games. The 20-year-old netminder also appeared in three games for Grand Rapids.

“I didn’t really know what to expect going down there,” said Cossa, who was Detroit’s 15th overall pick in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft. “It was tougher than what I thought. I had some ups and downs along the way but had a strong second half and a good push in the playoffs there.”

Cossa said a key part of his development will be learning how to use his 6-foot-6, 229-pound frame to his advantage.

“I’m a big guy,” he said. “Sometimes, I don’t have to be at the top of my crease to make saves. It’s more realizing the game and getting used to that level.”

The Fort McMurray, Alberta native also wants to increase his focus and ability to track pucks.

“Guys are bigger at the pro level and know how to use their body a little bit better,” Cossa said. “In the second half, I started to feel more comfortable and confident in it.”

Continued; Cossa is still a long-term project, but he’s one with a significant amount of “upside,” presuming that he continues to work on refining his game.

It’s easy to call Ville Husso’s acquisition a ‘Big Money Meh.’ It’s also short-sighted.

The Red Wings made a solid investment in Ville Husso last summer, but Sportsnet’s Sonny Sachdeva doesn’t seem to take the team in front of #35–or his lack of a viable goaltending partner–into account while ranking Husso’s acquisition and signing by Detroit as a “Big Money Meh“:

Ville Husso, Detroit Red Wings

Acquired by Detroit for a 2022 third-round pick, signed to three-year, $14.25-million deal

The Red Wings found themselves in a similar position as the young Devils — a growing core of young talent, incremental growth, but in need of a more substantial step forward. Also similar was their question mark in the crease, the club having bet on Calder Trophy finalist Alex Nedeljkovic and getting limited success in 2021-22. In Husso, they seemed to find the perfect do-over for that strategy, the Blues netminder breaking out with a .919 season in St. Louis, earning a Vezina vote, and seemingly setting himself up to be the biggest name on the goalie free-agent market before the Red Wings snagged him. But it didn’t necessarily all go to plan. While Husso looked strong for stretches in his first season as a Red Wing, he ultimately left more to be desired by season’s end. There’s no question the defensive strength of the group in front of him played a role, and that he could still thrive as that group improves. Still, given the numbers he put up previously, and the fact that Detroit gave him more money than the two goalies above, the first chapter of Husso’s Red Wings tenure finished as something of a disappointment.

Continued; Husso wore down because Alex Nedeljkovic, Magnus Hellberg and Victor Brattstrom were unable to stabilize the Red Wings’ goaltending, and Husso was tremendously over-worked by the 55-game mark, and his fundamentals broke down.

He finished the season with a 26-22-and-7 record, with a 3.11 GAA and an .896 save percentage, which is obviously not good enough for a team that hopes to contend for a playoff spot–or at least playoff relevance–this upcoming season.

That’s not to say that his first full season as a starting goaltender couldn’t have gone better–there’s no doubt that he needs to reinforce his fundamentals this summer, work on not flip-flopping from side to side in the crease, and squeezing closed a couple of holes between glove-and-blocker-and-body…

But James Reimer and Alex Lyon’s respective performances in the Red Wings’ crease will help tell the tale as to whether Husso can succeed as a late-blooming starting goaltender, as will the state of the Red Wings’ revamped defense.

There is no doubt that Husso played in at least a couple of his 56 appearances while playing through injuries, and he’s going to have to stay healthy this upcoming season…

But it’s hard to keep every squeaky goal out of the net when the season is winding down, the wheels have come off the playoff train, and you’re playing through pain because the coaching staff doesn’t trust your back-up goaltenders.

DHN’s Duff reports Dominik Kubalik expected trade to Ottawa

iSport.cz’s Pavel Barta posted a behind-a-paywall article in which he interviewed now-Ottawa Senators forward Dominik Kubalik yesterday, and Detroit Hockey Now’s Bob Duff translated the part of the article not stuck behind the paywall:

When the word came from Detroit Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman that he was being dealt to the Ottawa Senators, forward Donimik Kubalik didn’t exactly fall over from the shock of the news being delivered.

“Not that I was ready for the exchange, but I knew it could happen,” Kubalik told Czech website isport.blesk.cz. “Now I’m just looking ahead.”

The Red Wings were sending Kubalik, prospect defenseman Donovan Sebrango and a future first round draft pick to the Senators in order to acquire two-time 40-goal scorer Alex DeBrincat from the Senators.

…

As he was running his annual youth hockey camp back home in Czechia, Kubalik was still adorned in red gloves and red hockey pants adorned with the Red Wings logo.

“Nothing has arrived yet, I’m using old things,” Kubalik explained. “But we got the red gloves from Bauer years ago, so here I had the same color as I wore all last season.”

Continued; Kubalik’s from Plzen, so he’s going to be skating with HK Skoda Plzen shortly.

Tweet of note: Dmitry Buchelnikov speaks with Championat.ru

Via The Athletic’s Max Bultman on Twitter, KHL news source “Hockey News Hub” on Twitter did the hard part of translating an interview that Red Wings prospect and SKA St. Petersburg forward Dmitry Buchelnikov gave to Championat’s Anton Nekrasov:

DHN’s Allen projects the Red Wings’ 2023-2024 goal-scoring

Detroit Hockey Now’s Kevin Allen discusses how the Red Wings might reach a playoff-worthy level of goal-scoring this upcoming season, over the course of an interesting mid-summer exercise:

Everyone in the NHL, including the Detroit Red Wings, understand that being dominant in one area of hockey doesn’t guarantee success. The Buffalo Sabres finished third in goal scoring last season and missed the playoffs for the 12th consecutive season.

The Sabres were done in by inferior goaltending, inexperience and inconsistent defensive play. It doesn’t matter if you can score 3.57 goals per game if you’re giving up 3.62 goals per game.

But Buffalo’s 2023-24 woes don’t change the truth that team goal scoring is a predictor of season success. Defense and goaltending historically do win championships, but being one of the top 12 scoring teams gives you a high probability of making the playoffs.

One of GM Steve Yzerman’s offseason priorities was improving the team’s offense

In a recent subscription story, Detroit Hockey Now pointed out that 11 of the 12 highest scoring teams made the playoffs. Thirteen of the top 15 scoring teams (86.6%) qualified for the playoffs. Those top 15 scoring teams all scored 271 or more goals over 82 games.  That number will change this season, but it’s a good jumping off point to determine how much more productive the Red Wings need to be this season.

The Red Wings scored 237 goals last season. That means they need a 14.3% increase in scoring this season to get to 271.

Continued

Offbeat: Kris Draper takes part in a Grand Rapids pickleball tournament

Per the Grand Rapids Press’s Patrick Nothaft:

In a field of more than 1,000 players at the 2023 Beer City Open, only one competitor owns four NHL championship rings, and on Saturday, he’s tucked away in the northeast corner of Grand Rapids’ bustling Belknap Park pickleball complex.

Donning a backward Toronto Blue Jays hat and Vancouver Canucks athletic shorts, Kris Draper isn’t drawing attention to himself, but there’s a bit of a buzz building around Court 11, where the longtime Detroit Red Wing and his doubles partner, James Fernandez, are locked in an intense elimination match with Jayce Landheer, of Caledonia, and Jordan DeWeerd, of Hudsonville.

“C’mon, Kris!”

“Let’s go, Draper!”

The former Grind Line center, who’s now the Red Wings assistant general manager, has the support of a growing crowd, but he maintains a steady demeanor, hesitant to celebrate winning shots too vigorously or chirp at his opponents like he did during his 17-year playing career in Detroit.

“It’s funny. I’m the exact opposite on the pickleball court,” he said. “I kind of try to play low-key and all that, and a lot of the other guys are very vocal and cheering, so it’s kind of ironic how that happened.”

The fan support wasn’t enough, however, as the West Michigan natives defeated Draper and Fernandez by the slimmest of margins, 15-13, to advance in the men’s doubles consolation bracket at the 5.0 skill level, which is the tournament’s highest amateur offering.

Continued