Author: George Malik

My name is George Malik, and I'm the Malik Report's editor/blogger/poster. I have been blogging about the Red Wings since 2006, and have worked with MLive and Kukla's Korner. Thank you for reading!

Luszczyszyn suggests that the Red Wings are an easy ‘fade’ for bettors

I don’t speak the language of hockey betting, but it comes as no surprise that The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn leads off his “NHL Futures” article by giving the Red Wings a “fade” for this upcoming season:

Detroit Red Wings
UNDER 90.5 points, -120 (Stake: 7.5 percent)
NO playoffs, -162 (7 percent)

The Red Wings are easily my biggest fade this year. A 90.5-point total feels extremely generous for a team that felt fortunate to land at 91 last season. The Red Wings had the seventh worst expected goals percentage last season, but survived off hot shooting. They allowed the second most chances on the penalty kill, but countered that with unsustainably good goaltending. 

All that would be fine if the team was relatively young (they’re not), made meaningful improvements in the offseason (they didn’t), or could count on declines from teams around them (not likely). Unless Simon Edvinsson is the missing a piece and a day-one god, it’s difficult to envision a playoff path for the Red Wings this season — or matching last year’s 91 point total.

Continued; whether it’s betting futures or season previews, the Red Wings are going to be “bagged on” often this month and next month. The team’s not going to get any real respect from the media, and that’s just the way it is. Detroit’s got to prove that it is a playoff team by going out on the ice and winning.

One resilient Johnny Burgers

Updated at 2:43 PM: DetroitRedWings.com’s Jonathan Mills tells us a little about Jonatan Berggren’s belief that this year, he’s going to make a positive impact with the Red Wings:

“I felt when I got the chance [in the NHL last season], I did pretty good,” Berggren said. “I was an offensive threat. Like always, I know I can be an offensive player here so just take care of the defense and the rest will probably come later.”

Splitting time between the AHL and NHL last season was challenging for Berggren, but he believes he’s a better player because of it.

“Me and my girlfriend basically lived in my car,” Berggren said. “But looking back at it, I grew a lot. Mentally strong and stuff, so of course it’s been tough. I think it’ll help me in the long run.”

Red Wings head coach Derek Lalonde expects Berggren to take a leap in his development this season.

“You talk about actions, the first action is he had a great summer,” Lalonde said about Berggren. “He looks leaner. He looks like he’s got a little bit more pop. He’s done his work. Now, it’s just being a little more responsible in that two-way game.”

It stands to reason that the former second-round pick (No. 33 overall) in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft can do exactly that.

“I feel like I have a chance to take a spot and help provide goals for the team,” Berggren said. “That’s my main goal, but like I said, I need to take care of the defense first. The offense will come.”

Continued;

Update: Here’s more from MLive’s Ansar Khan:

Continue reading One resilient Johnny Burgers

Regarding Albert Johansson’s big chance to make the Wings’ roster

Detroit Hockey Now’s Kevin Allen wrote a subscriber-only story about the Red Wings’ hopes for one defenseman Albert Johansson:

“We feel he’s ready to help us,” [Red Wings coach Derek] Lalonde said on the first day of training camp in Traverse City. “…We want to see it in camp, but I just want a simple game, being able to transport the puck for us, being able to defend. And he did that at a pretty consistent level in Grand Rapids. ”

Not only do the Red Wings want Johansson to make the roster, he almost has to make the roster if the Red Wings want to keep him. Johansson is 23 with two seasons (128 games) of AHL experience. That means he is no longer waiver exempt. Yzerman has said, more than once, he believes Johansson would be claimed on waivers by another NHL team if he tried to send him to the minors.

Even before coming to North America, Johansson logged 141 games in the Swedish Hockey League.

The Red Wings openness about Johansson’s potential comes from the fact that it’s not a secret that it is decision time about his future.

Continued (paywall)

Videos: Simon Edvinsson and Alex DeBrincat speak with the media

Per the Detroit Red Wings’ YouTube channel:

Tweet of note: Seider will be in Detroit for Monday’s practice, reports HSJ

Good news here for both Seider’s preseason preparedness and for his work visa:

Shapiro on the ‘off-hand winger’

EP Rinkside’s Sean Shapiro digs deeply into the “off-hand winger’s” position in his “Shap Shots” Substack today, speaking with Patrick Kane about being a left-shooting winger on the right-hand side of the ice:

While Russians playing on their off-wing is more common, Kane is one of the more pre-dominant North Americans to play that way, carving a Hall of Fame career by slaloming up the right side and cutting to the middle for better scoring chances.

Kane grew up playing as a center, but started his journey as an off-hand winger while playing with the National Team Development Program. Kane was on a line with Rhett Rakhshani at the NTDP and Rakhshani was a right-handed shot that liked to play on his left.

“It just kind of grew, just being on your offside, having the puck to the middle, guys being able to cut to the middle, especially if you are playing with a guy that can one-time the puck,” Kane said. “It seems to work pretty well and you can make those cross-ice passes.”

Thinking about all of this, I decided to pull some video from Tarasenko last season to try and illustrate what Kane is talking about.

Continued (paywall)

Audio link: Friedman discusses Raymond and Seider contracts

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Kyle Bukauskas and Dominic Sramaty discuss the Red Wings’ restricted free agent re-signings right off the bat (at the 3:11 mark) in the latest edition of 32 Thoughts.

Sramati asks Friedman about the Berggren, Raymond and Seider contracts, the fact that they’re under the “Dylan Larkin cap,” and Friedman says that the Free Press reported this past weekend that Seider would be signed for 7 years instead of 8.

Seider may have been looking for an 8th year over Larkin’s number, so things were sorted out by taking it down to 7. If the 8-year deal for Seider happened, it would have started with a 9, so Steve Yzerman wasn’t comfortable with that.

As far as Friedman is concerned, one should never wait to re-sign players, because the price will never go down, and it’s a “win-win-win outcome” as the players are locked for a long time, it’s “W’s all around.”

Friedman also feels that Yzerman bent in terms of term, while Seider’s representation bent in terms of salary number.

Friedman says his former agent suggested that both sides win when they feel that they lost something, and in both negotiation, everyone wins, but they gave up something, and the players are locked up with the organization, so it’s done.

Bounce-back Holl?

Daily Faceoff’s Shane Seney discusses Eastern Conference players who need “bounce-back seasons,” and he includes Red Wings defenseman Justin Holl on his list:

Justin Holl, Detroit Red Wings
2023-24 Stats: 38 GP, 0 G, 5 A, 5 Pts

Year 1 of Holl’s $10.2 million contract did not go over very well in Detroit as he was a healthy scratch throughout portions of the regular season. He’s at his best when he’s keeping things simple, clearing out the front of the net and being effective on the penalty kill. Not a lot of anything went right for Holl last year. With a $3.4-million cap hit, GM Steve Yzerman is hopeful Holl can improve in year two, or else this contract could go down as one of Yzerman’s biggest mistakes. That’s assuming Holl can still crack the lineup as a regular. With Erik Gustafsson in the fray now, it’s possible Holl opens the year as Detroit’s seventh defenseman.

Continued; the Red Wings are hoping that Holl can do anything positive at this point, or he’ll be waived and sent to Grand Rapids (in my opinion). We’ll see how things shake out injury-wise over the course of training camp and the exhibition season.

Stockton talks Seider ‘comparables’

The Hockey News’s Sam Stockton compares Moritz Seider’s 7-year, $59.85 million contract at a $8.55 million cap hit to other defensemen around the league:

Owen Power (Buffalo Sabres, seven years, $8.35 million AAV) & Jake Sanderson (Ottawa Senators, eight years, $8.05 million AAV): the Divisional Rivals

What I like about the comparison here with Seider is that you have three very similar contracts (two seven deals and one eight, with just an AAV range of just a half million.  They’ve also all been signed by Atlantic Division rivals that are looking to make the same leap in the standings over the course of those contracts.  Chances are, all three deals won’t (and perhaps can’t) work out the way the teams signing them envisioned.

If I could have any of the three regardless of contract, I think I would chose Seider.  The immediacy with which he emerged as an impact player (and, in fact, Detroit’s number one defenseman) and his ability to confront an obscenely difficult work load.  

Regardless, it will be an interesting Atlantic Division storyline for nearly the next decade to track the health and viability of these contracts, as well as the teams and players who signed them.

Continued