A tale of two ‘chases’

The Athletic’s Max Bultman answered several reader questions in a mailbag feature. Among them:

Approximately 12 months apart, this team has been part of two different playoff chases. Last year, they obviously came up short. What changes in the past 12 months are most likely to yield a different outcome? — Cody B.

The biggest difference would be health — if they can keep it. Last year’s team obviously had its flaws, but one of the biggest reasons the Red Wings missed the playoffs was how flat they were when Dylan Larkin was injured last March, going 2-6 with multiple losses to Arizona and a bad one in Buffalo. Win just one more of those games, and they’d have been in.

So, keeping Larkin healthy would go a long way this time around.

But beyond that, there are other differences, too. This year’s team has shown it doesn’t need to play as much of a run-and-gun style to win, as evidenced by giving up two or fewer goals in six straight wins from Jan. 23 to Feb. 2. But when Detroit does need offense, it still has the power play to find it.

And perhaps most importantly, the Red Wings won’t be as reliant on one goaltender, as they were last season on Alex Lyon. They probably overworked Lyon — as they had previously with Ville Husso and Alex Nedeljkovic — and it showed as the season wore on. But with Lyon and the steady, reliable Cam Talbot, Detroit can more easily alternate and keep both goalies fresh.

Add in Lucas Raymond and Simon Edvinsson each leveling up and the contributions of some young players who weren’t here last year (such as Marco Kasper and Albert Johansson), and there’s at least a path to a better outcome this time around.

Continued (paywall)

Talking Red Wings playoff chances

Out of 6 teams that happen to be competing for one of the Eastern Conference’s Wild Card spots, The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman suggests that the Red Wings are sit 4th in terms of their prospects of making the playoffs:

Detroit Red Wings

Record: 28-22-5, 61 points

Playoff odds: 25 percent

The case for: The Red Wings have been on a tear since the coaching change, with a 15-5-1 record and 0.738 points percentage.

The most notable improvements have come at five-on-five. The Red Wings are creating more offense, which should provide more substance to go along with their hot power play. And the team has tightened up on defense. There has been more emphasis on proactively stopping the rush and denying opponents entry so the team doesn’t get pinned back in their own zone as often. The team is allowing fewer shots and scoring chances back, and their goaltenders have benefited. A usage tweak has also contributed to that — the Red Wings’ best defenseman, Moritz Seider, isn’t getting buried in some of the toughest minutes in the league since the coaching change.

Since Todd McLellan took over, Seider isn’t the only cornerstone to trend up. Dylan Larkin has been revitalized; he has an average Game Score of 1.70 after middling at 0.77 under Derek Lalonde. Lucas Raymond has also jumped from an average of 1.00 to 1.48.

The case against: Management waited too long to make a change.

As impressive as the Red Wings’ turnaround is, why didn’t management act sooner? The signs were there — the five-on-five offense disappointed, the defense was flawed and the penalty kill was a disaster.

At the time of Lalonde and associate coach Bob Boughner’s dismissal, the Red Wings sat second to last in the Eastern Conference with a 13-17-4 record and lowly 0.441 point percentage. The roster may have flaws, but Detroit shouldn’t have fallen that far down the standings. And it could prove costly down the stretch. The Red Wings have the most challenging schedule strength ahead, so missing out on some of those ‘easier’ points from the early goings of the season may come back to bite them.

Continued (paywall); shit happens, The Red Wings tried to make the Lalonde marriage work as long as they could, and if that costs them, that costs them.

Fourth line Larkin

The Athletic’s Michael Russo reports that Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin practiced at the right wing position on Team USA’s fourth line on Monday, and as such, Larkin was asked about accepting a lesser role:

Not everyone can be a top-six forward or be on the No. 1 power play. Heck, not everyone can play.

That was obvious Monday when the United States unveiled a fourth line that included Larkin. Chris Kreider, who scored 127 goals from 2021 to 2024 for the New York Rangers, looked slated to open the tournament as a healthy scratch.

“I’m just honored to be here and really happy,” Larkin said. “I’m one of the guys that will do anything to help the team and try and win. I’m probably going to be playing down the lineup, where I’m not used to that. But it’s something that I accept doing anything for the team.”

[Team USA coach Mike] Sullivan said this is the biggest challenge.

“The reality is when you look at these teams, they’re all dream teams, so to speak,” Sullivan said. “Most of them are used to being on the first power plays of their respective NHL teams, or they’re used to being the go-to guys in all the key situations. And the reality is when you put 20-something of them in the same dressing room, not everybody can be that guy.

“And so that’s going to be an important element is just a certain selflessness, a certain level of humility and self-sacrifice for the group. And I think that goes a long way to build the chemistry and the team atmosphere that we’re looking for.”

Continued (paywall)

Raymond, Larkin prepare to ‘face off’ next Monday

MLive’s Ansar Khan spoke with Red Wings forwards Lucas Raymond and Dylan Larkin regarding the fact that Raymond and Larkin will be battling against each other at the Four Nations Face-Off, with Raymond representing Team Sweden and Larkin representing Team USA:

Larkin and Raymond will meet next Monday when the U.S. faces Sweden. Raymond called it “weird” playing against a teammate. Both said it’ll be fun.

“We talked about it a little bit,” Raymond said. “Obviously, we’re very good friends off the ice, so first time playing against each other will be a little special. We’ve joked around a little bit, but yeah, it’s going to be fun.

“You go from hanging out every day, playing with each other to all of a sudden playing against each other in a big stage like that where it’s a lot of emotions involved, a high compete level. I don’t know what I’ll do if I see him in the corner next to me, but it’ll be a good time.”

…

“Obviously, he’s having a heck of a year,” Larkin said of Raymond. “He means so much to our team. Proceed with caution with him. We want to win and you want to play well, but he’s my buddy and you look out for him and smile. But again, that being in Boston, that’ll be another great atmosphere. I am excited to have a home game in Boston. It’s usually one of the toughest buildings to play on the road. It’ll be nice to have those fans on our side.”

Red Wings coach Todd McLellan is a little worried about the wear and tear that Raymond and Larkin will experience while the rest of the team is resting during the Four Nations break:

“The intensity and the stress of that tournament is going to travel with them everywhere they go and then they’re going to come back and step right back into the season again,” McLellan said. “They miss out on their bodies feeling better and all that type of stuff. But we’ll find days for those two somewhere along the way to try to get them what they need.”

Red Wings’ players, coach engaging in R&R before difficult stretch run begins

The vast majority of the Red Wings’ players have the next week off, with the Four Nations Face-Off break extending until February 18th, when practices will resume across the NHL.

DetroitRedWings.com’s Jonathan Mills spoke to several Red Wings players and coach Todd McLellan regarding the rest and recuperation that the Wings will indulge in over the next week:

“It’s a long year,” Talbot said. “This helps reset not only physically, but mentally as well. We have a few days of practice when we get back from the break, but there can’t be any kind of letdown. We have to continue to build off what we’ve built up here, but I think for the most part it’s getting healthy, resetting and coming back ready to go.”

Detroit certainly wants to start what is shaping up to be an exciting final stretch of the season with some momentum, especially after seeing both its seven-game winning streak and eight-game point streak end with a 6-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday.

“We can take some time to breathe,” Red Wings head coach Todd McLellan said. “As a staff, we’ll review where we’ve been and what we need to work on. Some of the things we saw [Saturday] are important. Game-management skills are really hard to work on in practice because there is no score or fatigue and not a lot of line-matching. It’s hard to recreate stressful situations, so game-management skills just have to keep coming through video and experience. For us to move forward, those are going to have to improve.”

Detroit will resume game action on Feb. 22, when the club hosts the Minnesota Wild for Kids Day at Little Caesars Arena. Erik Gustafsson pointed out that the Red Wings have “a lot of road games coming up” — 15 of their final 27, to be exact – and he also believes the players should try to enjoy this rare breather in the regular-season schedule.

“I’m going to rest as much as I can,” Gustafsson said. “Spend time with the family. We all need to enjoy the time off because we know it’s going to be a battle when we come back. We’ve worked hard to be in this position in the standings, but we obviously got to keep going.”

Continued

Audio: Friedman discusses the Tarasenko trade rumors on 32 Thoughts, links Tarasenko to Panthers

On Saturday night, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman revealed the surprising possibility that Red Wings forward Vladimir Tarasenko might be moved to another team in a trade.

This morning, Friedman and Kyle Bukauskas address the Tarasenko rumors a bit further on the 32 Thoughts podcast. Friedman suggests that the Florida Panthers are a team that might want to reunite with Tarasenko (at the 27:40 mark of today’s podcast):

“It’s just, if you look at how they’ve gone, he’s sort of the one guy who’s been the odd fit. He has a no-trade clause, so ultimately he has control, but I think, was talking to some people who see the Red Wings a bit more than I do, and they weren’t surprised to hear that, in the sense that, you know as the team’s gotten better, and players have started to play better, it has still been, a bit of a square peg in a round hole for Tarsaenko.

I gotta think that, you know, Florida doesn’t have a lot of flexibility. They don’t have a lot to deal, and they don’t have a lot of cap room,” Friedman said. “But they know the player [Tarasenko]. That was actually the first thing I thought of when I got off the air. I bet, in particular, Tarasenko would probably love to go back there, too…

But I just don’t know where this is going to go out. I think there’s something going on there. I think there’s an understanding that this has been a harder fit than everybody expected, and I’ve just been told by couple of places that don’t be surprised if something happens, because there’s a lot of good vibes with the Red Wings, but there’s not in this particular case.

The Red Wings would probably have to eat part of Tarasenko’s salary to move him, and I would imagine that the return would be minimal, but if he’s not fitting in, he’s not fitting in.

Looking on the bright side of the ‘Weekend Rankings’

The Athletic’s Sean McIndoe offers his “Weekend NHL Rankings,” and this morning, part of his column addresses the Red Wings’ successes of late:

Detroit Red Wings — OK, now that they’ve finally lost a game, let’s regroup and see where this team is really at.

Saturday’s loss to the Lightning snapped a seven-game win streak and left the Wings with a mark of 15-5-1 under Todd McLellan. That’s still an excellent record, obviously, and it’s been enough to get them into the last wild-card spot. It’s been an impressive climb — when the win streak started on Jan. 23, they were 14th in the conference, five points out of a playoff spot. When McLellan took over, they were 15th, and eight points back. To cover all that ground and pass all those teams in just six weeks is an impressive feat.

But it still leaves them in a precarious spot, setting up a second half in which every point will be crucial. And for our purposes, it makes them a tough team to evaluate. The pessimist’s view is they’re a mediocre team that got hot for just long enough to barely climb into a wild-card spot. Every team has a win streak at some point, and while those wins count as much as any other, regression arrives eventually. When it does, these Wings will revert back to being what they’ve been for a few years now — a wild-card bubble team that ends up falling short.

The optimist’s case is McLellan, and the fact his arrival coincides with the best six weeks this team has played in years, isn’t some random quirk. This is his team now, and he’s unlocked something here. Derek Lalonde had sucked the life out of this group, and McLellan brought it back. Maybe they won’t play at a 120-point pace for the rest of the year, but we shouldn’t worry about anything that happened in the pre-McLellan era. And if you buy that, the Wings are going to roll to a playoff spot.

Of course, you could also be boring and say the truth is somewhere in the middle. That might be good enough for Wings fans, who haven’t seen a playoff game since 2016 and might figure an underdog run as a wild card would be good enough for this season especially given how it started. But at least they can spend the break hoping for something more, as unlikely as it seems.

Continued; you know where I stand on this.

I don’t care whether the Red Wings actually make the playoffs. I just want them to be in the playoff mix for the balance of the regular season. To simply be competing for a playoff spot going into the final 5 games of the season would be quite the feat given how badly things went under coach Lalonde, and it would be a testament to how much they might be able to accomplish under a full year of coach McLellan’s stewardship.

As far as the pessimist’s view is concerned, I roll my eyes a bit at The Athletic’s company line regarding the Red Wings being nothing more than a mediocre team, and I suppose that the cynic does hold that view.

Therein lies the rub: I believe that it is incredibly important in life to be skeptical of everything, but to not become cynical, because I find cynicism to be an unhealthy state of mind.

Coach McLellan encourages players to rest up during Four Nations break

The Detroit News’s Ted Kulfan reports that Red Wings coach Todd McLellan had a simple message for his players after yesterday’s 6-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning–to head into the Four Nations Face-Off break with their minds “turned off” from hockey, so that they can regroup and refresh over the next week-and-a-half:

“It’s been stressful for a lot of players here and a lot of staff,” McLellan said. “During the year, the team to go through what it has gone through, it takes a lot out of you mentally and and physically. But mentally as much as anything.”

McLellan isn’t worried about players getting out of shape or flowing too much out of a hockey mindset.

“I would have been more worried about them 10 or 15 years ago, letting themselves go by just laying on the beach,” McLellan said. “Enjoy this for 10 days. They actually enjoy training now and feeling good about themselves. Yes, they’ll have some fun, and they should. They’ve earned it. Mentally, I’d like for them to turn their heads off.

“I’d like for them to focus on their families, their kids, the people that sacrifice for them during the year. Give their time back to them now and when they get back here [on Tuesday the 18th], we’ll turn it back on. We’ll have four days of practice, so it’ll be a little mini-training camp. We’ll get them back into it.”

The coach is concerned for Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, the team’s two representatives at the Four Nations Faceoff in Montreal and Boston:

“It’s taxing,” McLellan said. “You’re spending another two weeks on the road. We’re just coming off a real long road trip, you wash your clothes, and now you’re leaving again. It’s been about three weeks on the road for our guys.

“The intensity and the stress of the tournament will travel with them everywhere they go. They’ll come back and skate right into the season. They miss out on their bodies feeling better and that type of stuff. We’ll find days for those two somewhere along the way to try and get them what they need.”

Continued

Tweets of note: On the Wings’ ‘strength of schedule’ and the Griffins’ 4-game losing streak

The Red Wings and Grand Rapids Griffins’ play-by-play announcers dispense wisdom today on Twitter/X: