The Malik Report

It’s Labor Day, and a week from today, if all goes well, Aunt Annie and I will be packing for our never-before-tried trip to Traverse City with an elder care twist.

In all honestly, aside from a couple of tremendous donations from benefactors both mysterious and not-so-mysterious, fundraising has been really difficult.

That’s okay; it’s usually particularly hard to raise money in the “late summer,” and I know that many of you are kind of GoFundMe’d out at this point…

Daily Faceoff’s Scott Maxwell is examining the NHL’s 32 teams’ respective salary cap situations, and he has particularly harsh words to say about the Red Wings’ salary management:

30. Detroit Red Wings (2022: 22nd)

Good Contract Percentage: 24th (2022: 16th)
Quality Cheap Deals: 9th (2022: 15th)
Contracts with No-Trade/No-Move Clauses: 28th (2022: 9th)
Dead Cap Space: 24th (2022: 27th)
Quality of Core: 20th (2022: 26th)
Cap Space to Skill Differential: 21st (2022: 9th)

Steve Yzerman’s direction with the Red Wings continues to be at-best confusing and at-worst misguided. Last season saw the Wings rank poorly on this list due to a questionable 2022 offseason that saw Yzerman load up on older players to complement a core that wasn’t ready to be competitive yet. He backtracked at the deadline when that didn’t pan out, but come summer of 2023, he’s done the exact same thing, and it’s dropped the Wings even further down the list.

Sitting in the 20’s in five of the six categories certainly doesn’t do you any favors, and a lot of that is due to the back-to-back summers of spending in free agency. Some of the contracts like David Perron, Daniel Sprong, Shayne Gostisbehere, and James Reimer look favourable, but the additions of Andrew Copp and Ben Chiarot last year and J.T. Compher and Justin Holl this year drag that way down, not to mention that a lot of these signings have some no-trade/no-move clauses attached to them to hinder another category. All of that builds to a roster that doesn’t grade out well, and even with more than $5 million in cap space, the system thinks a team of this quality should have more cap space.

However, they did see some marginal improvement in couple areas. They see their quality of core get better as Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat’s contracts kick in (and more importantly, Chiarot no longer qualifies as a core player), and their dead cap space went down with Frans Nielsen’s buyout all wrapped up. Where they look best, though, is with their quality cheap deals, as their rebuild has given them plenty of quality young players on entry-level contracts like Moritz Seider and Elmer Soderblom. But, there’s still a lot left to be desired with their cap situation, which is disappointing when you consider that all that’s left of the cap hell Ken Holland left behind is Justin Abdelkader’s buyout penalty.

Continued;

I don’t know how to elucidate my point other than to say what I feel to be true.

Yzerman is still in the early stages of a real from-the-ground-up rebuild of the Detroit Red Wings, which may take a decade or more to reach its fruition.

You don’t want to hear that, and I don’t want to hear that, but Yzerman had to burn down what Holland left him before really starting the rebuild in earnest. When you are starting a rebuild, you have to overpay in terms of both salary and term of contract. You make a couple of mistakes, and you assuage for them as best you can.

And you get panned for “not having a direction” and being a fraud and all that bullshit.

Thankfully, the Red Wings’ GM is not concerned with the court of public opinion, and while I don’t think that any of us truly know where the Red Wings will end up this upcoming season, I do believe that the team is building a stable of prospects, depth players and the kind of atmosphere which will eventually attract the kind of marquee free agents which will help the Wings assuage for shitty draft lottery luck.

Yzerman is playing the long game against an impatient fan base, and he’s going to get slagged at times over the next couple of seasons. It’s trendy right now to bash him as a fraud, in fact, and that aggravates me. But he’s got a thick skin and a lot of hockey knowledge, and, if only eventually, I believe that his vision for the team will prevail.

Paying fans have every right to want to push the timeline forward, and most of their constructive criticism is healthy. But this hating-on-Yzerman bullshit is short-sighted.

Former Red Wings forward Filip Zadina appeared on the “32 Thoughts” podcast to discuss his decision to leave the Red Wings via a mutually-agreed-upon termination of his contract, and then sign with the San Jose Sharks during the summer:

The Hockey News’s Adam Proteau predicts the order in which the NHL’s Atlantic Division teams will finish this upcoming season, and he’s predicting that the Red Wings will finish 7th, behind the Boston Bruins:

Why they’re picked in this position: We don’t believe the Red Wings will be closer to the bottom of the Atlantic than the fourth or fifth spot in the division, but the truth is, many of the moves Detroit GM Steve Yzerman has made in the off-season don’t strike us as being moves that can push them back into the post-season for the first time since 2015-16. 

In particular, the free-agent signings of Compher, Holl, Petry and Reimer aren’t needle-movers in a positive sense. We do like the acquisitions of DeBrincat, Sprong, Fischer and Gostisbehere, but there’s so much competition in the division and only four or five playoff spots to be had. The question becomes, which team above Detroit in last season’s standings will be worse than them this year? The answer to that is not many at all.

We don’t want to count out the Wings altogether – if starting goalie Ville Husso posts a strong season, Detroit could nip at the heels of teams like the Sabres, Senators and Bruins and squeeze out a playoff berth. However, Detroit doesn’t have enough generational talents to keep up with the Joneses in the Atlantic, and that may prove to be the reason why they wind up on the outside of the playoff picture this year.

Should that prove to be their fate, Yzerman will be facing heavy criticism for the first time in his tenure as the Wings’ GM. But that’s what’s going to happen to an organization that, for years and years, was the gold standard for being a playoff team and a genuine Cup threat. Detroit’s players need to justify Yzerman’s investment in them, or more consequential moves could be made next summer.

Continued; we shall find out whether the Red Wings are able to battle their way up the Atlantic Division standings shortly.

Daily Faceoff’s Mike Gould posted a 2023-2024 season preview for the Detroit Red Wings today, assessing the team’s offense, defense, goaltending, coaching and top prospects, all before asking the following “burning questions”:

1. Can Dylan Larkin find another level? Larkin has yet to score 80 points in a single season. He’s never been a point-per-game player in the NHL, although he’s come extremely close the last two years. Now that Alex DeBrincat is in the fold, there’s no reason why the Red Wings shouldn’t be able to trot out a top line that can dominate in the offensive zone. Larkin is extremely talented — 85 or even 90 points shouldn’t be out of the question. If he can get there, the Red Wings should be in good shape.

2. Is Moritz Seider truly the guy? Seider endured some serious growing pains as a sophomore, although a significant chunk of that can be attributed to the team’s inexplicable acquisition and deployment of Ben Chiarot. Seider was a force to be reckoned with in his rookie season and he has all the tools to be a franchise defenseman in the NHL. If Jake Walman truly is his natural partner, Seider should be able to take off in a full season alongside him. But if that magic starts to wear off, the Red Wings are light on potential replacements.

3. Who will lock down the 2C role? Andrew Copp scored nine goals last year. He makes $5.625 million through 2027. Copp and J.T. Compher will likely duke it out for that 2C role during training camp and throughout the season, but it’s difficult to pencil either in as a bona fide top-six center until one of them proves he can handle the responsibility. Copp really only has one strong playoff run with the New York Rangers to hang his hat on, while Compher has always been insulated within the Colorado Avalanche system.

Continued;

I’m of the opinion that Larkin doesn’t need to find “another level” as much as he needs to continue driving play with his puck possession and speed while skating with DeBrincat; I’m just not worried about Moritz Seider’s long-term development; and I will admit that I am curious and/or concerned as to whether Copp, Compher or Kasper will emerge as the Wings’ 2nd line center.

Red Wings forward Lucas Raymond spoke with NHL.com’s Dan Rosen about his outlook and his team’s outlook for the 2023-2024 season, suggesting that both he and the Red Wings need to take a step forward this upcoming season:

“Last season, I think we took a step as a team, moved in the right direction, and coming into this season we’re taking an even bigger step,” Raymond said. “Expectations are getting higher for the team but also for myself, which is a lot of fun.”

Raymond seemed to hit a conditioning wall about halfway through his sophomore season, but he insists that the 12-point drop in point production should rectify itself due to an accumulation of experience:

“I feel like when you first get in, you’re young and you think you know everything,” Raymond said. “It’s like that when you’re 15 too and you’re like, ‘Oh, I got this.’ But then the next year you’re like, ‘Oh, I wish I knew this,’ and the next year it’s the same. So next year I’ll probably have that again, ‘Oh, I learned this, but I wish I knew it before.’ As long as you want to learn and you want to develop I think that’s the biggest asset you can have.”

Raymond has that. 

He said he has spent the offseason training his 5-foot-11, 176-pound body to better handle the physical rigors of the NHL.

“I’m still 21 and my body is developing so to gain that physical advantage that’s been a big focus,” Raymond said. “You want to develop yourself, have that drive and good things come with that.”

He knows he’s still young but is also aware that he can’t use that as an excuse anymore, not when he has played 156 NHL games.

“Whether you’re young, old or in the middle, it doesn’t really matter, you play the same game, you’re on the same ice,” Raymond said. “I am young, but I’m in it. The first year everything is new, everything is exciting. The second year you’re getting a bit more feel of it. Coming into my third year, now I have more experience and I know how to deal with certain situations I get put in. I’m excited for it.”

Continued; I have faith that Raymond will rebound from a middling second half of last season. He’s still growing into his body, developing endurance, and improving his skating, and he should continue to develop going forward.

Via Detroit Sports Nation’s W.G. Brady, take this rumor from the Chicago Daily Herald’s John Dietz with some fine Detroit rock salt:

Watch for Patrick Kane to sign with the Detroit Red Wings. Someone who knows Kane very well said Kane told him he wanted to follow Alex DeBrincat if/when he was able. Of course there has to be mutual interest, so we'll see if Detroit extends an olive branch … https://t.co/4qk4lEASPM

— John Dietz (@JDietzSports) September 3, 2023

I’d still imagine that Kane wants to sign with a Stanley Cup contender, but if the interest is mutual, we shall see. Kane did play for Detroit Honeybaked and the NTDP.

If you hadn’t heard, the Edmonton Oilers replaced Tyler Wright as their director of amateur scouting this past week, bringing in Avs head scout Rick Pracey as their new director of amateur scouting.

Wright was replaced by Kris Draper after Steve Yzerman’s first draft with the Red Wings, and, as Detroit Hockey Now’s Kevin Allen discusses today (in a subscriber-only article), the final years of GM Ken Holland’s administration included more than a few whiffs at the draft table:

A review of the last five seasons of Ken Holland regime drafts shows Detroit made 46 draft picks and managed to find 11 players who have logged 67 or more NHL games.

Joe Veleno (2018), Jonathan Berggren (2018), Michael Rasmussen (2017) and Dylan Larkin (2014) are the only four players drafted by the Red Wings from 2014-2018 that are still on the roster.

The 11-for-46 success rate for draft picks during that period represents a .239 batting average for hitting on a draft pick. If you lower the success standard to any draftee who played at least one game, the Red Wings improve to 12-for-46 for 2014-2018 drafts. (Chase Pearson played three NHL games). That’s a 26% success rate.

The league success rate for that period is roughly 45 percent (with success defined as a draftee playing only one NHL game). The Red Wings were well below the league average.

Continued (paywall); for better or worse, Yzerman came to Detroit with all but an empty cupboard in terms of the prospect department, and his administration, under Kris Draper’s leadership, has built up a very solid stable of prospect players.

It is, of course, the job of both those players, and the Wings’ player development staff, to ensure that Draper’s faith in those players is proved correct.

Of prospect-related note today:

In the Champions Hockey League, Axel Sandin Pellikka had 2 shots and blocked 2 shots, finishing even in 19:54 of ice time in Skelleftea AIK’s 4-3 loss to Dynamo Pardubice.

IceHockeyGifs posted a quick clip of ASP doing his thing:

Skellefteå lost their 2nd CHL game 4-3 against Pardubice. Sandin Pellikka played 19:54 with 2 shots on goal #lgrw pic.twitter.com/MjMLfipYQO

— IcehockeyGifs (@IcehockeyG) September 3, 2023

And in the VHL, Dmitri Buchelnikov made his regular season debut, posting two assists in 16:08 played as SKA Neva St. Petersburg won 5-1 over Zvezda Moscow.

We’ve talked about Red Wings prospect defenseman Antti Tuomisto several times this summer, discussing the fact that the hulking defender chose an unconventional path to “bet on himself” last year.

He left the University of Denver after two seasons spent in North America to head back to Europe, playing in 60 games for TPS Turku of the Finnish Liiga.

Quite a few people wrote Tuomisto off as a prospect who succumbed to homesickness (and earning a quick buck), but the truth was that he played so well as a first-year professional that the Red Wings chose to sign the 6’5,” 205-pound right shooter to an entry-level contract.

This morning, the Free Press’s Helene St. James adds her voice to the chorus, discussing the remarks that Tuomisto made at the Red Wings’ summer development camp: