The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn discusses the Red Wings’ resurgence ahead of “16 stats” this morning:
It’s only been nine games, but it does feel like this is a brand new Red Wings team — the team that fans have been promised since the rebuild began.
Aside from a penalty kill that is still terrible, the Red Wings have made massive strides since McLellan arrived. At five-on-five the team is finally average, cleaning things up considerably on the defensive front. They’re right around break-even by goals and xG, a huge step up from where they were previously: hovering around 45 percent. The power play has seen the biggest change scoring 18.7 goals per 60 and generating 11.8 xG per 60.
The power play has been the driving force of the team’s offensive surge, giving the team’s stars some much-needed momentum toward being the players they’re paid to be. Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane — all four are scoring above a point-per-game pace under McLellan. They’ve found their rhythm and it’s translating to better work controlling play at five-on-five. All four are earning at least 53 percent of expected goals, a mark no Red Wing touched under Derek Lalonde. Raymond, at 51 percent, was the only forward above break-even.
Control the play, control the game. That’s been McLellan’s ethos at every stop he’s been to and the Red Wings are buying in from the get-go. Good defense leads to good offense and it’s easier to practice that when players are seeing that work lead to big point totals. The Red Wings have been a team with a lot of talent buried by a system ill-served to get the most out of it. McLellan’s experience as a coach that gets things going in the right direction is exactly what this growing team needed.
The Red Wings aren’t quite out of the woods yet though. Standing in front of them is an epic mountain to climb.
That’s where they can truly prove they’re ready to take the next step, showing their stuff against the league’s toughest schedule in the season’s second half. In 23 of Detroit’s remaining 39 games, the Red Wings will be up against teams projected to finish the season with over 100 points. The average Net Rating of their opponents is plus-12, five higher than the next toughest schedule. They’ll also play 23 games on the road.
All that is why our playoff model is still tough on Detroit’s playoff chances, especially after the team struggled to start the season despite playing the league’s easiest schedule.
Continued (paywall)
