The Athletic’s Max Bultman answers a whole bunch of “When Should The Red Wings Blow It Up?” questions in a mailbag feature this morning, but I would argue that the last question Bultman answers is far more pertinent than, “Who should the Wings trade away”:
Detroit, Ottawa and Buffalo have been expecting a jump for three years now and the Atlantic standings haven’t budged. Has the parity of the league stagnated, or do these cycles just take longer than we think they should? — Nathan R.
The cycles do take longer than I think anyone wants to admit. Retools, where teams keep a few young stars and build around them, can go quicker, but from a true teardown and rebuild, I think these teams do reflect just how hard it is.
It’s natural to believe you can do it faster “if everything goes right.” But everything very rarely goes right, and without some good fortune (such as winning multiple draft lotteries), it’s easy to get stuck on the way back up.
That doesn’t mean those teams haven’t made mistakes to prolong their timelines, of course. I’m sure Buffalo regrets some trades it has made after watching former core players win Stanley Cups elsewhere. And I can’t help but wonder if some of those moves were made out of frustration for how long the process was taking.
But the reality is, there’s no easy, proven way to complete a rebuild on the quick, unless you get really lucky — either in the draft or some other way. The New York Rangers, for example, had Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox practically force his way into their lap, had a Hart Trophy candidate (Artemi Panarin) pick them in free agency, had a fourth-round pick turn into the best goalie in the world (Igor Shesterkin), and got a No. 1 pick from the draft lottery. That doesn’t happen for most teams.
Eventually, I believe all three of Buffalo, Ottawa and Detroit will get through these miserable years. But I don’t think anyone knows exactly when it will happen, including them.
Continued (paywall); with unrestricted free agency being a hit-and-mostly-miss endeavor, the truth of the matter is that teams need to build from within–and get lucky in terms of non-drafted player personnel additions–in order for what are honestly 10+ year rebuilds to “gain traction,” and Detroit’s arguably shown a couple more flashes of competency than the Sabres or Senators over the course of the past two seasons (though few this year)…
But it’s going to take time and some good fortune for the Wings to truly exit the second tier of the Atlantic Division From Hell. That’s not a good thing or a bad thing; it’s just the truth.
