Overnight, I’ve been thinking about the 6-7-and-1 Red Wings’ plight, and what the team should do after dropping a disappointing 4-0 decision against the New York Rangers.
In all honesty, I’d give the Red Wings’ coaches and management similar advice to what I’d tell a losing political party: proceed with caution, be patient and deliberate, and don’t jump to conclusions here.
Thanks to the jumbled-up nature of the Atlantic Division standings, the Red Wings are not already doomed to struggle their way through the Division of Death; in fact, the Red Wings own 2 games in hand on the 3rd-place Boston Bruins, who sit at 7-7-and-2, and the Bolts, Sabres and Senators sit 2, 2 and 1 point ahead of the Red Wings, respectively:
The non-Toronto-or-Florida inconsistency of everybody else in the division means that the Red Wings still have some time to get their s#!^ together and regroup from their 2-game losing streak this past weekend;
While their 4-game road trip to Pittsburgh (Wednesday), Anaheim (Friday), Los Angeles (Saturday) and San Jose (Monday) is not going to be easy by any stretch of the imagination, there should be bankable points on the table, and the Wings are going to need to take advantage of their “games in hand” before the remainder of the November schedule hits with some tough Eastern Conference games against the Islanders (twice), Bruins and Devils (once):
The Red Wings also play every other day from the 21st of November until December 9th, so the team’s going to end up grinding it out for almost 3 weeks, though their schedule is split 6-and-4 between home and the road.
Long story long, I think that:
- There’s no need to make drastic changes–yet, anyway. There are only 14 games’ worth of data right now, and because the Atlantic Division is so jumbled, the Red Wings haven’t played themselves out of a playoff spot yet. In theory, at least, the team is still in a position to salvage its season, and that’s going to involve the team responding much better to the challenges at hand as they play 14 more times before December 9th.
- I would not make a coaching change at this time, but I would have a coaching candidate or two in my back pocket if I were GM SY. Amidst the endless rumblings that Joel Quenneville would somehow solve everything that’s wrong with this Red Wings team, I still believe that the Wings can respond to Derek Lalonde, Bob Boughner, Alex Tanguay and Jay Varady, the team’s bench bosses. The coaching staff has at least earned some strong results from the team from time to time, and if the team cleans up its special teams play, earns some better balanced scoring, and gets some puck luck, there’s nothing that can be done by a new coach that the current staff can’t already do.
- At the same time, if the Red Wings’ players do not respond to the coaching staff by December 9th, I think that’s the deadline for the team to make some changes both behind the bench and in terms of player personnel, and in the coaching category, it’s never a bad thing to have somebody in mind in case things continue to spiral out of control.
- As previously stated, there is definitely some pressure to change up the player personnel, but at this point, I wouldn’t consider a trade or two to address the team’s secondary scoring woes or penalty-killing struggles. I still believe that the Wings eventually need to add a right-shooting, shut-down defenseman to spell Seider and Edvinsson on the second D pairing, but they can hold off on those plans for a while given that there is still potential in terms of scoring from Vladimir Tarasenko (king of the “almosts” in terms of scoring chances with Marco Kasper) and Erik Gustafsson (who’s been very good offensively, but hasn’t broken through on the power play).
- The penalty kill can be corrected as well through the team doing a better job of “fronting” the puck carriers, getting more sticks and legs in passing and shooting lanes, and if the damn team stops leaving players open at the lip of the goal crease, fewer goals are going to go in via tips and rebounds.
- As far as reinforcements go, it’s more important right now to take a look at Grand Rapids and see which players may do no harm (see: guys like Joe Snively, Sheldon Dries, Brogan Rafferty and William Lagesson) while Carter Mazur’s on the IR and William Wallinder is just coming off an injury. If the Wings need to stabilize their lineup as injuries will likely hit over the course of the next 3-and-a-half weeks and 14 games, they’ll have a host of steady players with which to experiment as well as a couple of promising prospects. I’d go through those players–and possibly give Sebastian Cossa a short call-up if injuries hit the goal crease–before making a move on the trade front.
- That being said, it’s time for Kirk Maltby and the Wings’ pro scouts to start evaluating talent around the league and scouting as many games as possible on video and in person to look for secondary scoring and stabilization of the Wings’ defensive corps.
- If I was the present coaching staff, I’d also be going through a significant amount of video to determine whether there are enough good things to show the team in terms of its early-season performances (see: Wednesday’s game vs. Chicago) in order to decrease the shot differential, improve its secondary scoring and stem the tide of goals against on special teams. The problems the team has should be correctable and they at least get some practice time via this week’s 3-day break and next week’s 2-day break between games.
- Right now is not the time to make a knee-jerk move that could hamper the team’s latter-portion-of-the-season resurgence. 14 games in, 1 game below .500 at 6-7-and-1, with 14 games to go before December 9th, the team should know its identity by game 28. You can definitely win yourself into a playoff spot via a tremendous early-season start (see: 14-and-1 Winnipeg) or play into some trouble that will require digging out of (see: 5-9-and-1 Nashville), or you can end up somewhere in between (where the Red Wings are right now). Detroit has some cap space (PuckPedia estimates it’s at $2.66 million right now, with Ville Husso and Justin Holl on the roster) to allow to compound and some time with which to determine how to bolster the lineup if necessary.
- Right now, it’s about stepping back, evaluating the coaching staff and player personnel, patiently scouting potential reinforcements or replacements for down the line, and utilizing video and practice time to stabilize the team as its West Coast Swing beckons.
- There should be enough runway with which to allow the team to sort its crap out between now and the end of the next 14-game segment, and there’s going to be more than enough data over the next 3-and-a-half weeks’ worth of games to “know what the Red Wings are” by early December–which is just early enough in the regular season to still make some changes and salvage a difficult campaign with a second-half surge. Ideally, the Wings don’t have to surge forth with the same kind of desperation that they did last season, presuming that they steady the ship and press forward with a purpose…
- But if they’re still taking on water in December, then it’s time to consider firing the coaching staff and/or making significant changes to the roster. GM SY is nothing if not patient and deliberate in terms of his actions, and that’s a good thing right now. It’s going to piss off the fan base, because everybody and their cross-eyed uncle seem to want major knee-jerk changes to be made right flerbing now, but it’s just not necessary for the team to surrender assets in order to bolster the roster just yet.
Step back. Evaluate. Assess. Keep scouting replacements in the team’s “back pocket,” and resolve what you can with the present roster via video and practice in order to stabilize the team and address the issues with shot differential, secondary scoring and special teams goals against.
It’s not going to be simple or easy for the Wings to reset and regroup, but they haven’t self-destructed in a meaningful way yet, and they could and should take the muddled status of their Atlantic Division rivals as a rallying cry with which to remember that it’s still somewhat early in the regular season yet, and that there is time–with that time being now–with which to salvage their incredibly mediocre start.
Now’s the time to dig in and reset, with an eye toward meaningful improvement. Panic is simply unnecessary yet, and significant coaching or roster revisions just aren’t necessary yet, either. Patient evaluation, assessment and implementation of a meaningful “game plan” should afford Detroit enough leeway with which to move forward in a unified and determined manner.
It’s not going to be easy as there are no “gimme games” on the NHL schedule, but Detroit can sort itself out without outside help, at least at the present moment.
Tarasenko and Kane are obviously trending downwards, but the biggest disappointment is Raymond. 1 goal in 14 games is beyond awful especially after signing the big extension.
Lalonde better figure something out soon because if we go winless on this road trip, everyone will be calling for his head. Team is so boring at times. Not sure if its his “system” or we just suck, but there are games where if not for Ken & Mick I would change the channel.
INTRO
this is my first wings-related post anywhere this season. i stopped posting or even looking at KK after paul posted a gambling ad posing as a tribute to the gaudreau brothers and worse still, wouldn’t take it down when called out. that speaks for itself. no more KK, so here i are.
THOUGHTS SO FAR
– i’m not one of these people who thinks the wings HAVE to make the playoffs because it’s been some X number of years. we all understand injuries, draft luck, and many other factors go into what you can expect from a team in a given season. however, results add up over time, the status quo has shown very little improvement, and it’s time to consider change. as of the end of last season, and through the summer, i saw nothing that suggested the team would improve on last year’s results and i did expect a step back. that’s been borne out so far;
– forwards: mix and match personnel how you want, but this team is realistically made up of a legitimate middle of the road or better NHL first line, a very good NHL third line, and a bunch of guys that make up 2 middling to bad NHL 4th lines. their “veteran depth” is more or less an illusion; “forward depth” is supposed to mean you have players who can plug in up and down the lineup, while the wings basically have guys who only plug in DOWN the lineup after their first-line guys. more on specific personnel later;
– defense: after seider, and admitting edvinsson fits in and has a lot of upside, this team has the same problem as the forward group, which is too many vets who are outright bad, making rookie mistakes even though well into their 30s, etc. this defense is not playoff-caliber, and riding seider the way they are has the potential to ruin what he could really be if you believe he should be freer to show off more offensive upside while still cracking skulls;
– goaltending: this has been a problem for long enough that you can’t just *start* criticizing management for this mess. they knew full well the mess they had on their hands in sept. 2023, and here they still are, not really sure if anyone on their roster is going to stop pucks on any given night. in spite of and not because of their moves, lyon and talbot have been well above average this year, so tough to get too upset. again, though: would anyone have been surprised if none of detroit’s goaltenders were any good this year? i wouldn’t have been, and that’s the problem;
– coaching: hard to be too critical given the roster problems i’ve outlined above. deciding who to play between a 30th percentile NHLer and a 25th percentile NHLer on any given night…OK, maybe that gets you 1-2 more standings points a season if you do it perfectly. at most. but so what? it won’t win you a cup. i don’t have many problems with the coaching;
– front office pt. 1: i am now at the inescapable conclusion that this front office needs major change. with that will probably come a coaching change; whatever. their pro scouting — the staff that’s brought us campbell/petry/chiarot/copp/motte/watson/compher/tarasenko/fischer/gustafsson/holl…that’s too many underperforming and outright bad deals to look the other way on anymore. full stop. it’s embarrassingly bad. we need to get real about that and accept it;
– front office pt. 2: you can forgive taking a shot on somebody like campbell, that’s just money and cossa needs at least this year to see if he’s ready. you can see where even chiarot, copp and compher maybe made sense on paper for what they were supposed to bring, but not for the deals they’re on. holl has been a disaster of a deal. motte/watson/fischer aren’t there to move the needle and put up 40 points, and they sure aren’t, but if they’re intended to be 4th line nothing-special guys, why not give our young forwards chances in those roles and see what we have? mazur comes to mind immediately. too many of our 3rd and 4th liners are at or below replacement level to even think about making the playoffs, never mind doing anything of consequence except being an easy out in the first round. same for the defense. if that’s going to be the case, bring up some youngsters and see if maybe 1-2 of them can grab a role and be the same as or better than what we have;
– front office pt. 3: the TERRIBLE deals need to be called out. petry and holl were already huge mistakes going into this season. petry at least isn’t much of a cap problem due to retained salary. holl…ugh. the problem now? gustafsson and tarasenko look like they’re well on their way to being the same. more below;
– gustafsson: it’s never a good sign when i’m watching the season opener, see gustafsson literally playing defense like a college freshman, and have to look up his deal to make sure that yes, we have 163 more games with him under contract at $2m/season. again, not a train wreck cap wise, but why even do this? if you needed RHD depth, at least get someone who belongs in the league or don’t sign anyone! did the pro scouts just not watch any video of this guy the second half of last season? there’s a reason the rangers didn’t bring him back, and it was there for anyone to see. they were only paying him $800k/yr, also for a reason. there’s nobody i watch on this team who night in night out when he’s in the lineup makes more glaring, confusing, and outright bad plays, and with this bunch (petry!), that’s really saying something. they gave him a raise and two years when he was a known quantity coming in! how does that happen in the NHL? and don’t tell me, “kane told us to!” if you listened to patrick kane when deciding on this deal, that’s also on you, and maybe makes you look even worse;
– tarasenko: everyone knew this guy’s effort level basically goes up and down with his contract status and he doesn’t really give a full effort on defense. for a team that admitted outright after 2023-24 it needed to get better defensively, with this being a knock on the guy for literally years, why bring someone like him in? was he ever realistically going to push this team over the top and into the playoffs? if they really expected that, they’re worse than i thought in terms of projections. and don’t give me any “rings in the room” bullshit. the guy’s not a leader and never has been. he’s not scoring, he’s not good defensively, and if i knew this is who he was, the front office should’ve known, too;
CONCLUSION
an NHL front office that has made this many mistakes with this many prospects and vets and has shown no signs of slowing down needs to be changed. maybe it’s the pro scouts, i don’t pretend to know *what* the change should be, but something. i know they can’t control their draft luck, but they can control their developing and the vets they sign, and so far it’s been pretty poor outside of clear cut studs like kane, seider, and raymond.
it’s been a lot easier to ignore their games or just turn them off these past two seasons. i don’t expect wholesale change given yzerman can probably keep this job as long as he wants, but he needs to surround himself with better staff, not just former teammates who don’t seem to be very good at running an NHL franchise. i’ve seen enough by this point to feel confident saying this. yzerman himself seems to be well thought of by other execs in the league, but this front office…overall, it’s dismal. they keep trying the same bad ideas and getting the same bad results. when will it stop?
whoa, we can’t get formatting?
It is still VERY early, but I agree that Raymond, Kane, Tarasenko, Gustafsson, Bergrenn, and Veleno, have all been major disappointments-but it is still early. Luckily other teams are off to slow starts as well. There is still time for the Wings to get on track and I have faith that they will soon.
Imagine also: if they’d laid off Holl and Petry, they’d have easily been able to afford Hronek’s cap hit with a few other moves.
Just…nonsense.
I’ve pointed out coaching as my major concern with this team. Here is some data to both support and chip away at that belief.
Player Development using xGF% as a measure over the course of Uncle Fester’s tenure as coach.
ADB – stagnant
Copp has gotten better each year
Larks – consistent each year
Berger – better each year, having his best year thus far
Holl – 44% -> 49% ytd
Razor has gotten better each year
Mo – Having his best season
Edvinsson – Consistent
Tarasenko – 45.8 ytd
Petry – 48% 23-24 ->46% ytd
Notable others
Pius Suter – 48.4% w/ DET in 22-23 -> 54%, 56% with VAN
Hronek – 46% w/DET in 22-23 -> 52% (’23), 60% (ytd) with VAN
Holl & Petry are effecting the game similar to what Hronek used to provide in this system.
Team xGf% (Trending up, barely)
22-23 46.3
23-24 46.4
24-25 49.9
Total xGa (getting worse)
22-23 170
23-24 179
It’s nonsensical to think that Hronek would be controlling the game the same in DET as he is in VAN. He’s playing with a Hart trophy candidate (just ask Vancouver media) and reigning Norris winner in Quinn Hughes. Would he be preferable to Holl & Petry? I’m honestly not sure. That cap hit would remove some of these others from the equation.
Wings fans, we’re too savvy to be talking counting stats. WGAF if Razor has one goal? He’s creating offence at a higher rate than he ever has. The goals will come. He’s leading the team in points.
The team got worse, season over season, with expected goals against. Yet, the team improved from 12 games under .500 in 22-23 to a .500 team last season. The standings are all that matters, but the underlying numbers show who’s developing in this system and who isn’t.
The best players on this team, according to the underlying numbers, are players that SY drafted. Berger, Edvinsson, Johansson, Razor, Kasper, Mo. Toss in Larks, who he didn’t draft, that is a solid core.
Why can’t this coaching staff figure out how to use them? Why aren’t they tougher to play against? SY isn’t at fault here.
The team improved from sub .500 to .500 year over year. Anything less than a winning record this season is unacceptable.
*all data from evolving-hockey