Discussing the Wings’ probable playoff recipe

MLive’s Ansar Khan filed an early-morning article which discusses whether the Red Wings will be able to make the playoffs if they earn 91 or fewer points this upcoming season, the same number of points that they posted last year:

What’s it going to take for the Red Wings to end their eight-year postseason drought? More than 91 points, history shows.

The Washington Capitals earned the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference with 91 points in 2023-24, the lowest total for a playoff qualifier in the East, excluding the COVID-shortened seasons of 2019-20 and 2020-21, since the NHL realigned to four divisions and moved Detroit to the East in 2013-14.

The Capitals also compiled the most points for a final playoff team when they accumulated 100 in 2021-22.

In nine full seasons under the current alignment, the average point total for the final wild card club in the East is 95.6.

So, chances are, after their 11-point improvement last season, the Red Wings will need to increase that total by four or five points to get in.

Continued (paywall)

HSJ in the morning: on Raymond and Seider

The Free Press’s Helene St. James discusses the impasses between the Red Wings’ management and restricted free agents Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider this morning, wondering aloud whether the players might miss part or all of the Red Wings’ training camp:

Nothing leaks from the front office of general manager Steve Yzerman, and when asked last month, all coach Derek Lalonde said was he wasn’t worried. There’s also Chris Ilitch to consider, as ownership tends to have to approve big deals.

The way Raymond, 22, played in the final stretch last season certainly helped his argument. He figures to slot in around $7.5 million.

The Wings would prefer not to pay anyone more than the $8.7 million salary cap hit of captain Dylan Larkin, but Seider is a 23-year old defenseman who won the Calder Trophy in 2022. He plays in all situations – as Yzerman said in April: “We’re asking him to do a lot.”

And that’s why Seider can ask a lot as he segues from his entry-level deal ($863,334 annually for the past three years) to one that will make him a multimillionaire. The Buffalo Sabres are paying 24-year-old Rasmus Dahlin $11 million per year and Owen Power, who is 21, is about to start a seven-year contract with an $8.35 million cap hit.

Seider has not missed a game since entering the NHL, with his streak reaching 246 games. During that run, he has 21 goals and 113 assists; 53 of his 134 points have come during power plays. This season, he reached a career high with nine goals among 42 points; he was also the only NHL player with at least 200 blocks and 200 hits. Dahlin has 185 points in 239 career games.

St. James comes to a logical conclusion:

There’s still time for the Wings to get deals done. They’ve been negotiating for months, but as camp arrives and then the exhibition season, the urgency is going to grow. The Wings want to be competitive, and that’s not happening without Seider and Raymond in the lineup.

Duff discusses the free agent invites taking part in the Prospect Games

I posted a scouting report regarding the players taking part in the Red Wings’ Prospect Games against Dallas this weekend, and this morning, Detroit Hockey Now’s Bob Duff discusses the free agent invites:

Among this group are right-wingers Borya Valis (Prince George, WHL), Charlie Paquette (Guelph, OHL) and Dylan Edwards (Erie, OHL), centers Chase Lefebvre (Peterborough, OHL) and Brayden Edwards (Lethbridge, WHL). Defensemen Matthew Virgilio (Sault Ste. Marie, OHL), Bauer Dumanski (Prince George, WHL) John Van Mulligen (Medicine Hat, WHL), Blake Smith (Flint, OHL), Marcus Kearsey (Charlottetown, QMJHL) and Zack Sandhu (Oshawa, OHL) are other free agents coming to rookie camp.

If you’ve got an eagle eye and a sharp memory, you’ll recall that Lefebvre, Paquette, Valis, Kearsey, Smith and both of the Edwards boys were participating in the Red Wings July development camp.

Both Valis and Dumanski were WHL teammates of Red Wings 2024 third-round draftee Ondrej Becher last season with the Prince George Cougars.

Los Angeles-born Denver resident Valis was acquired last season in a trade with the Regina Pats. “Valis is an offensive player that has a nose for the net,” former Red Wings forward Mark Lamb, coach/GM of the Cougars, told the Prince George Citizen.

Dumanski is the type of defender with the necessary skills to work the back end in the current pro game. “His puck movement skills are what you need to be effective in today’s game,” Cougars scouting director Bob Simmonds told the Prince George Citizen.

Continued; this one’s worth your time.

Two things: A bit of praise for Nate Danielson, and Brennan Ali on development camps

Of brief prospect-related note early this morning:

  1. NHL.com’s Mike G. Morreale examined one player to watch for every team taking part in a prospect tournament/showcase/set of games this upcoming weekend. He gives Nate Danielson his nod as the Wings’ prospect to watch…

Traverse City Prospects Tournament

Nate Danielson, F, Detroit Red Wings: There’s a professionalism and determination about Danielson that has the Red Wings excited about his future with the organization. The 19-year-old right-handed shot (6-2, 185), selected No. 9 in the 2023 draft, will likely play this season in Grand Rapids (AHL). Blackhawks center Connor Bedard, who won the Calder Trophy last season, called Danielson the most difficult player to skate against in his draft class. Danielson plays every situation and has shown consistent success on face-offs.

Emil Hemming, F, Dallas Stars: The 18-year-old right wing (6-2, 205), chosen No. 29 in the 2024 draft, will play for Barrie of the OHL after scoring 11 points (seven goals, four assists) and averaging 10:04 of ice time in 40 games last season with TPS in Liiga, Finland’s top professional men’s league. He’s a sniper, a good physical presence, hard to knock off the puck and has a willingness to work in the dirty areas of the ice to create offense.

And Red Wings prospect and University of Notre Dame forward Brennan Ali was among a slate of NHL-drafted players who spoke about the experiences of attending summer development camps with FightingIrish.com:

A 2022 Detroit Red Wings draft pick, Brennan Ali has also spent the previous three summers attending development camps in Michigan. He shared a similar sentiment, “I feel like camp can be a grind, but you’re ready for it because you’ve been at Notre Dame, which is very academically and athletically challenging as well as being very regimented, you’re very scheduled, so you’re ready for that grind because you’ve experienced it before.”

Through all the mental battles and hard work the draftees were competing and training with other players in the same boat as them. Players on other college teams or playing in European or Canadian leagues, all with the goal of playing for an NHL team.   

“It’s pretty eye opening how detailed and hard working a lot of the other players are,”  Ali said of his Red Wings peers. “Everyone has a mutual respect for one another because we all know how much work we’ve put in to be there and you know that everyone else is putting in just as much work as you, so we all understand that we all deserve to be there.”

Tyler Spezia’s happy to continue his career by returning to the Walleye

Former Grand Rapids Griffins forward Tyler Spezia has chosen to continue his professional hockey career by signing with the ECHL’s Toledo Walleye, and Spezia spoke to the Toledo Blade’s Mark Monroe about rejoining the ECHL team:

“I’m excited,” said Spezia, who re-signed with the Walleye last week. “My last taste of meaningful playoff hockey was when we lost in 2018-19 to Newfoundland in the Kelly Cup Finals. So that was a big thing. I want to play meaningful games on a good team and compete for a championship. There’s no better place to do that than in Toledo.”

Spezia, a native of Clinton Township, Mich., had played the past four seasons for Toledo’s American Hockey League affiliate in Grand Rapids after splitting time between the organizations in his first two years of pro hockey. He hopes the next stage of his career ends with an on-ice celebration.

“It’s not really any shocker that’s the focus from day one here,” Spezia said. “Although you do need a lot to go right to get yourself in that position — it definitely looks like we’ve got the team to do it.

“The last two years, it’s been in the back of my mind coming back here. Toledo was great to me, and I loved it there. When you’re not enjoying the game as much as you had in the past, you go back to when it was really fun. That’s the mindset. I want to enjoy it and be on a good team. It’s almost going back to your roots.”

Continued

Dylan Larkin cracks EP Rinkside’s ‘top 20 centers’ rankings

EP Rinkside is producing “Top 20” lists at each and every one of hockey’s six positions. Alex DeBrincat earned a spot in JFresh’s best left winger’s rankings, Lucas Raymond earned a spot in JFresh’s best right winger’s rankings, and today, Dylan Larkin earns a spot in JFresh’s best centers‘ rankings:

19. Dylan Larkin – Detroit Red Wings

2023 Ranking: Tier 6

Larkin finally inched above a point per game for the first time in his career in the 2023-24 season, a far cry from the first year I did these rankings when he was coming off two seasons at a 54-point pace. Even as his team’s playoff dreams fell apart, his production remained eerily consistent; pick any segment of 15-plus games from last year, and he almost definitely scored at roughly a point per game pace. From a skills perspective, Larkin is a well-rounded player who, despite slowing down a bit over the course of his twenties, has retained great puck skills, strong passing, and tremendous finishing upside. He plays all situations against difficult competition and manages to hold his own at both ends of the ice, no small task.

Continued; I don’t see him getting slower, but I’m biased.

‘Avoiding regression’

The Hockey News’s Jason Duench offers 5 things that the Red Wings need to avoid “a regression” this upcoming season, and among them are the following:

Veterans Stay Relevant

American hockey superstar Patrick Kane reinvigorated the Wings following his December 2023 debut – Detroit finished with the 15th-best regular-season record after Jan. 1. Kane’s 47 points in 50 games showed he still has game.

The 35-year-old will be joined this season by two-time Stanley Cup champion Vladimir Tarasenko, who is still capable of 30 goals and 60 points in a healthy season.

If Kane and Tarasenko can’t shoulder the load of their top six responsibilities, Detroit’s forward depth could get exploited by most teams in the formidable Atlantic Division.

Continue reading ‘Avoiding regression’

Sportsnet estimates the Wings finishing sixth in the Atlantic Division

The preseason Red Wings anti-hype watch continues. Sportsnet’s Emily Sadler was saddled with determining how the Atlantic Division will play out this upcoming season, and she’s giving the Red Wings’ a 6th place ranking, below the Buffalo Sabres:

6. Detroit Red Wings: They. Were. So. Close.

So close to making the playoffs. So close to finally being a contender after a long rebuild. So close to finally showing us what the Yzerplan is all about. So, is this the year they’ll turn meaningful hockey down the stretch into a post-season run? That’s the hope, but there are question marks up and down the lineup after another busy off-season and a to-do list that still includes signing top RFAs Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider.

Yzerman brought in veteran Vladimir Tarasenko and brought back Patrick Kane, both of whom are well-versed in what it takes to win it all. If everyone could just kindly sign on the dotted line, the Red Wings could finally be ready to join the contenders conversation, but overcoming questions in the crease and a tough playing field in the Atlantic is a big ask.

Continued; well, the Wings are going to have to figure out a fair number of issues as training camp and the exhibition season play out, and we all know that with Lindy Ruff behind the Sabres’ bench and the Sens having reinforced their roster, Detroit will receive no favors from the press.

Prospect round-up: Buchelnikov posts assist in Vityaz loss to Dynamo Minsk, is up to 4 points in 4 games

Of Red Wings prospect-related note:

In the KHL, Dmitri Buchelnikov had an assist on Vityaz Moscow Region’s only goal as Vityaz lost 5-1 to Dynamo Minsk. Buchelnikov finished with 2 shots, a 1-and-1 faceoff record and posted a hit in 15:44 played.

It’s incredibly early, but Buchelnikov has posted 1 goal and 3 assists for 4 points over the course of 4 games for Vityaz.

Update: From Red Wings Prospects on Twitter:

Coach Lalonde wants to hit the ice running

DetroitRedWings.com’s Jonathan Mills conducted a conversation with Red Wings coach Derek Lalonde ahead of training camp:

Derek Lalonde will begin his third Training Camp as head coach of the Detroit Red Wings next week at Traverse City’s Centre Ice Arena, and after the improvement the club has shown over the past two seasons, he and his players are extremely motivated to take the next step in 2024-25.

“I know it sounds cliché, but you just trust your everyday process,” Lalonde told DetroitRedWings.com on Tuesday. “That starts on Day 1. We improved 11 points last year and 17 over two years. Only a handful of teams can say that, but we must keep pushing. We need more. That’s just concentrating on the things we can control, which is what goes on in our locker room and on the ice.”

Last season, Lalonde guided the Red Wings to their most wins (41) and points (91) since 2015-16. Although Detroit just missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Lalonde said playing meaningful games down the stretch helped the team grasp how much of a focus there must be on the small details.

“You have to bring it every night because it’s so intense,” Lalonde said. “You find out what happens on nights when you don’t bring it. It was a really good lesson. We preach how important every point and moment are.”

Lalonde said the Red Wings are seeking more consistency night in and night out this season.

“This league is so competitive,” Lalonde said. “If we want to work our way towards the top half of this league, there’s a finer line in the difference between winning and losing. We saw moments of it last year, but we need a little bit more of it throughout.”

Continued; there’s a lot of coach-speak in here, but it’s good to hear that the coach expects his players to be ready to go on day one, and to be more consistent this upcoming season.