The Athletic’s Max Bultman discusses, “How [the] Red Wings’ Moritz Seider can make his long-term deal pay off” this morning. As you might expect by now, Max’s fine article self-references Dom Luszczyszyn’s model/metric suggesting that Seider hasn’t been quite cutting it defensively as compared to his peers, all while playing incredibly difficult minutes as both the Red Wings’ top shut-down defender and difficult minutes as an offensive catalyst.
What I see as the real determinant, though, has to do less with the raw point totals and more with the way Seider can — and now, must — help the Red Wings control games in the coming years.
It’s well known at this point that Seider took the NHL’s toughest minutes last season. We’re talking an off-the-charts level of difficulty relative to his peers. And it’s a major mitigating factor when talking about Seider’s underlying play-driving numbers, which last year dipped down to just a 43.26 percent expected goals share when he was on the ice at five-on-five, according to Evolving-Hockey.
When you know a player is facing the hardest competition in the league, of course, it’s easy to understand why that number is what it is. None of the top-10 defensemen in strongest offensive opponents last season (as of March 28, when The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn covered Seider’s situation in-depth) finished with an expected goals share above 50 percent. Certainly, there are other factors at work there, such as the quality of teammates of rebuilding teams like Montreal and Chicago for players such as Kaiden Guhle and Alex Vlasic. But it stands out.
Of the 10 defensemen with the next-toughest, nine of them managed to clear the 50 percent mark. That list includes Sanderson, Noah Hanifin, Gustav Forsling, Aaron Ekblad, Noah Dobson and Brett Pesce.
And while, yes, Seider still played tougher minutes than all of them, those are realistically the kind of results that can make his deal a success for the Red Wings. Because as tough as that workload was for Seider last season, it’s not going anywhere.
“I don’t foresee that changing,” head coach Derek Lalonde said. “Where we are as a team, how valuable he is, how he can handle top lines — I think part of our continued growth with (team) points and wins over the last two years, why it’s headed in the right direction, is because of that part of the game and being able to handle matchups. So, I don’t think that’s going to change, as long as he’s here with the Red Wings.”
Continued; I know the metrics are the metrics, but I believe that getting that “expected goals share” to 50% or more involves both Seider’s self-improvement curve and spelling him of some of those minutes by adding a shut-down defenseman via trade at some point this season.
Can Seider become a better player in terms of defending at the tender age of 23? Definitely. Does he need to become a better player in terms of defending because he’s going to earn $8.55 million this upcoming season? Definitely.
There’s no doubt that Moritz Seider, like Lucas Raymond, faces a ton of pressure to continue improving and developing into a, even more elite player now that he’s getting paid like one.
But banging on one metric as the be-all-end-all determinant as to whether Seider is successful or is a failure as a defenseman…That sticks in my craw.
Seider has the “hockey brain” and work ethic necessary in order to succeed over the long haul. He’s a self-improver of the Dylan Larkin variety, and I believe that he will fulfill the expectations placed upon his shoulders.
I just don’t believe that we need to panic and run naked in the streets if he’s not performing to Luszczyszyn’s standards.
In my condominium complex, the homeowners’ association fines you $75 if you get caught in the nude outside, and that’s just for the first offense.
Seider will persist, regardless of whether he passes the “Luszczyszyn Test” on a given night. He’s got to get better defensively, and he’s got to get more consistent offensively. I’m not betting against him.
