ESPN’s Rachel Doerrie discusses players who are candidates to “regress” this upcoming season in a subscriber-only article, and it is no surprise that Lucas Raymond’s exceptional 2023-2024 season has him squarely in Doerrie’s crosshairs:
Lucas Raymond
F, Detroit Red WingsShiny new contract in hand, Raymond should find himself glued to Dylan Larkin this season. However, it is entirely unreasonable to expect a player to replicate a 19% shooting percentage season, when his career mark prior to last season was 12.6%. Raymond is likely around a 14% shooter, and is still developing his NHL scoring toolbox. The model’s projection has his production remaining similar overall, with a reduction in goal scoring and increase in assists.
This is likely to be the first season where he is a defensive focal point, facing tougher matchups. Playing on the top line with Larkin and Alex DeBrincat should result in elevated scoring opportunities for Raymond, but he is not the primary shooter on that line. He will be relied upon to retrieve pucks, create off the rush and play a two-way role.
To replicate his 31 goals last season at a 14% shooting percentage, Raymond would need to record 222 shots, a 36% increase in shot production and an average of 2.7 per game. His goal production is expected to decrease to the mid-20s, but his assists are expected to increase to nearly 50. He’s projected for 74 points this season, which is more than respectable for a fourth-year player.
Continued (paywall); this is not exactly Raymond’s first season as someone who teams attempt to shut down as a “defensive focal point,” and while I’m not certain whether he’s going to post another 30+-goal season, I think that he’ll find a way to remain an integral part of the Red Wings’ attack. Fear not.
