The Red Wings signed Lucas Raymond to an 8-year, $64.6 million contract on Monday evening, and as you might expect, the media had a fairly unified take on the deal: good for both sides.
First, there’s such a thing as taking too much credit, per The Fourth Period…
The Detroit Red Wings have signed restricted free agent forward Lucas Raymond to an eight-year, $64.6 million contract, as first reported by TFP’s David Pagnotta.
Pagnotta reported on NHL Network that the two sides were working towards a long-term extension, and the Red Wings and Raymond finalized their new deal, which comes with an $8.075 million average annual value, less than an hour later.
97.1 the Ticket’s Will Burchfield left the comments to a certain somewhat reclusive GM who is probably not going to speak until the first day of training camp, and after that, the trade deadline…
“He’s a fabulous, talented player with great hockey sense,” GM Steve Yzerman said after the season. “He plays with a lot of courage, a lot of determination and I think his confidence has grown over the course of the season. He’s an exciting player, obviously, and can do some really special things with the puck.”
Raymond started slowly last season, under the pressure of playing for his next deal. He said that “disappeared from my mind” as the stakes rose for the Red Wings later in the year, and his production reflected it. He had 19 goals and 38 points in his final 37 games, including 14 goals in the final 18 when his team needed him the most.
All told, Raymond had 31 goals and 72 points in 82 games.
“He certainly showed, more so down the stretch, his game-breaking ability, scoring big goals, key goals. I don’t think that’s an aberration,” Yzerman said. “I think he’s going to continue to do that.”
MLive’s Ansar Khan went with commentary from Raymond (who is probably flying from Gothenburg, Sweden to Detroit now or very soon) instead…
Increasing strength in the offseason made a tremendous difference in his ability to win battles and be stronger on the puck.
“You’re a year older, your body’s a year older, you’re maturing on and off the ice, you’re learning what your body needs to be in the best shape possible and to put yourself in position to be successful every night,” Raymond said after the season. “Consistency is a big part of that. It’s a lot of games. You really have to take care of your body but not only that, your mind as well. I think it’s a lot of different things. Maturing, getting more experience.”
Raymond said after the season he was able to put aside the distraction of impending contract talks and focus on hockey.
“It was special for sure,” he said of this season. “Early on it was kind of on your mind a little bit. But as the season went on I kind of forgot about it. You were just so focused on trying to win games and get to where we want to be as a team. It kind of disappeared from your mind, which probably helped a little bit. It was a special year and I think for us it’s just about building off of that and going forward.”
The Free Press’s Helene St. James reminded us of the “hard times” (that’s what we’ll call them from now on)…
Raymond emerged as a key part of the rebuild soon after the Wings drafted him at No. 4 in 2020. That was the year COVID-19 shuttered the regular season on March 12, and in response to all teams not having played the same amount of games, the NHL settled on a draft lottery that would include the seven teams that weren’t part of the playoffs (the Wings were the only team eliminated from contention at the time of the shut-down) along with the eight losers of the playoff play-in round. That led to the New York Rangers going from the playoff bubble to selecting first overall, and the Wings being pushed back three spots.
Yzerman looked and sounded understandably upset the night of the lottery, but he made the most of it in selecting Raymond. He spent another season in the top-level Swedish Hockey League, and came to North America and made the Wings out of camp in 2021, as a 19-year-old. Raymond scored 23 goals among 57 points in 82 games as a rookie, playing mostly on the top line with Larkin.
Raymond had some growing pains in his second season, no longer an unknown to opponents, and was limited to 17 goals and 45 points in 74 games. He went into the offseason with renewed focus on getting stronger, and showed up at camp in the fall of 2023 roughly a dozen pounds heavier.
The Detroit News’s Ted Kulfan quoted the coach…
During the Wings’ late season run toward a possible playoff berth, Raymond played the best hockey of his three-year career, including seven goals and 12 points in eight tense, playoff-like April games.
Raymond dedicated himself off the ice in the summer of 2023, and the results were evident.
“He found something in his offseason last year,” coach Derek Lalonde said. “He came back and he just looked like a different athlete. A little of that was just him maturing, he’s still a very young player and naturally his body matured. But it’s just keep building on what he did last year.”
And reminded us of the day’s other business…
The team also signed Jonatan Berggren to a one-year contract worth $825,000 on Monday. Berggren, 24, is likely to be on the opening night roster and no longer waiver exempt.
Berggren had 15 goals in 67 games with the Wings two seasons ago, but he only played in 12 contests with Detroit last season with six points (two goals, four assists) and was unable to secure a roster spot. Berggren has 17 goals and 17 assists in 79 career NHL games. He excelled in Grand Rapids last season with 56 points in 53 games.
How much ice time Berggren receives this season remains unclear as it appears the top-six forwards are basically set.
Detroit Hockey Now’s Bob Duff discussed the business yet to be done…
Now the final question left for Yzerman to answer is what will he be paying his remaining restricted free agent, defenseman Moritz Seider?
Earlier in the day Monday, the Red Wings were locking up forward Jonatan Berggren on a one-year pact with an AAV of $825,000. Add in Raymond’s $8.075 cap hit and that leaves Detroit with $8,748,194 in cap space.
The speculation is that no one will be given a salary higher than the $8.7 AAV of captain Dylan Larkin. So that probably slots Seider, the 2021-22 Calder Trophy winner, in at around $8.6 million.
The Hockey News’s Sam Stockton put things bluntly regarding the Raymond deal…
From a Red Wings’ perspective, it’s just about an ideal contract. They secure the 22-year-old’s services for what promises to be the full extent of his prime. If he can keep up last year’s production (a career-high 72 points), it will be a solid value for Detroit. If he can push much beyond that, it could very well look like a bargain. Meanwhile, as nearly all NHL players tend to do, Raymond opted for the security of a long-term contract over the potential for multiple massive pay days a shorter extension might have invited.
If you’re interested, Connor Eargood took a deep dive into the “comparables” that Raymond’s agent, J.P. Barry, probably used in his negotiations…
One of the costs of Yzerman’s patience during internal negotiations is that there aren’t many happy surprises when it comes to contract value. Whereas his shrewdness has been questioned due to his tendency to overpay UFAs on the open market, it shows up in spades in the way he finds fair value between players and his team based on what their contracts are actually worth.
Look at it this way: Yzerman doesn’t give players deals he hopes they will grow into, as is the case with many general managers today. Instead, he pays them based on what they’ve proven they’re worth.
Raymond proved he was worth $8,075,000, and so he paid him. Compared to the [Matt] Boldy contract, Yzerman can be certain Raymond earned that extra million instead of hoping he did.
And The Athletic’s Max Bultman discussed “comparables,” too…
Raymond was a tricky valuation in part because of the range of his comparables. Statistically, his current resume is ahead of where Ottawa’s Tim Stützle’s was when Stützle signed an eight-year extension worth $8.35 million annually ahead of the 2022-23 season. Stützle broke out in a big way that season, scoring 39 goals and 90 points, but at the time of the extension, his best year had been 22 goals and 58 points.
Meanwhile, Carolina’s Seth Jarvis, who was arguably a closer statistical comparable to Raymond — coming off a 33-goal, 67-point season in 2023-24 — signed an eight-year deal with a $7.9 million AAV ($7.42 million cap hit with deferred money) earlier this summer. Raymond has outscored Jarvis in every season of their careers, so it’s fitting that his contract surpasses Jarvis’, but his number coming in below Stützle’s (particularly before percent-of-cap adjustment) represents good value for the Red Wings.
As did the Hockey News’s Jason Duench and Jacob Stoller…
Stacking up Raymond’s new contract with comparables around the league makes it look even better.
Steven Stamkos, 34, signed a four-year, $32-million contract that will pay him $8 million annually. Without discounting his career accomplishments, it could be a classic example of paying a veteran for what he has accomplished versus what he will accomplish.
Since recording a career-high 106 points in 2021-22, Stamkos’ totals have steadily decreased, most recently to 81 points in 79 games, and could continue to do so in his Predators tenure.
Raymond, on the other hand, is ascending fast. After a breakout year, The Hockey News Fantasy Guide projected Raymond to hit totals of 36 goals and 82 points for this season. He hasn’t peaked and is only entering his fourth NHL season.
And you can take the ineptly-named Pro Hockey Rumors’ Brennan McClain’s comments for what you will:
He has not shown much defensive prowess up to this point but the Red Wings should receive good value on this deal if he can reach a point-per-game level. He is second in scoring amongst all players selected in the 2020 NHL Draft behind Tim Stutzle of the Ottawa Senators and he does not appear close to losing that position.
Raymond will be entering his age 30 season at the end of this contract which positions him well to land another pay day in the future. The Red Wings are looking to return to the Stanley Cup playoffs for the first time since the 2015-16 season and the team hopes that Raymond will be a major piece in their renaissance.
