NHL.com’s offering in-depth season preview packages for all its teams this month, and today, they discuss the Red Wings’ 2023-2024 season outlook.
Nicholas J. Cotsonika kicks us off with an article which summarizes Detroit’s hopes of earning a playoff spot this upcoming season:
“There’s definitely expectations going into this season, so that’s always a good thing,” said forward Patrick Kane, who signed a one-year contract June 30 instead of testing the free agent market. “You want those expectations. You want, whether it’s the fans or the media or just players in general, to expect the team and the organization to take the next step.”
The Red Wings have progressed steadily since [GM Steve] Yzerman took over April 19, 2019. After bottoming out with 39 points in 71 games (.275 points percentage) in his first season, they had 48 points in 56 games (.429) in 2020-21, 74 in 82 (.451) in 2021-22, 80 in 82 (.488) in 2022-23 and 91 in 82 (.555) last season.
They failed to qualify for the playoffs last season because they lost the tiebreaker to the Washington Capitals, who earned the second wild card in the Eastern Conference with the same number of points but more regulation wins (32-27). Detroit’s playoff drought stretched to eight seasons, the longest in the team’s 98-year history.
Asked if he feels more pressure to make the playoffs as the years go by, Yzerman said with a laugh, “Um, yeah, a little bit, honestly. Our fan base wants to win. We came close last year to making the playoffs. Still … the finish of our season was very exciting and dramatic. It’s a little bit maybe misleading. We’ve got to really improve, as we talk about, in some areas.”
Cotsonika’s first article continues, and he then asks three important questions of this year’s team. I’m going to go with his second question as the most important one, even though the team’s goaltending situation is question #1 on just about every Wings fan’s mind:
Can the Red Wings improve defensively?
The biggest problem for Detroit last season was team defense. The Red Wings ranked 24th in goals against per game (3.33).
They hope Talbot will help in goal. They added forward Tyler Motte to help in the bottom six. A big question is how two rookie defensemen — Simon Edvinsson and Albert Johansson — will perform. Edvinsson, the No. 6 pick of the 2021 NHL Draft, is expected to play regularly, and Johansson, a second-round pick (No. 60) in 2019, is expected to contribute at some point.
But in the end, it will be on the coaches and the players as a group to figure out how to possess the puck more and keep it out of the net better.
“Obviously, we feel we can be a better group defensively as well,” forward Patrick Kane said. “That’s always a key component to winning and getting into playoffs, and that’s on everyone, right? Not just the guys that are in that role, but everyone needs to play better defensively, so I’m sure we’ll go through that as a team and how we want to play in those situations.”
Cotsonika then examines some of the Red Wings’ top prospects, offering a breakdown of Detroit’s “top 5″…
1. Simon Edvinsson, D
How acquired: Selected with No. 6 pick in 2021 NHL Draft
2023-24 season: Detroit (NHL): 16 GP, 1-1-2; Grand Rapids (AHL): 54 GP, 8-22-30Edvinsson played mostly in the American Hockey League the last two seasons, with a nine-game NHL stint in 2022-23 and a brief two-game appearance last December, before being called up to play 14 games in the heat of the Stanley Cup Playoff race last season, an important experience for the 21-year-old.
Now, Edvinsson (6-foot-6, 209 pounds) will have the opportunity to play a regular shift for the Red Wings and perhaps on special teams.
“He’s not going to be handed anything, and Simon needs to know he’s going to have to work for it and earn it every shift,” general manager Steve Yzerman said. “He has the ability to do it, and it’s up to him to do it, and he’s going to have to do it.”
Cotsonika’s breakdown continues, and he hands the balance of the Red Wings season preview to NHL.com’s Pete Jensen for “NHL EDGE Stats“…
2. Defenseman Moritz Seider was among the NHL leaders in long-range shots on goal (67; 92nd percentile) and long-range goals (six; 98th percentile) while also excelling in top shot speed (98.58 mph; 91st percentile) and total skating distance (246.46 miles; 87th percentile).
Seider posted 42 points in each of the past two seasons, slightly inferior offensively to his rookie performance in 2021-22, when he won the Calder Trophy with 50 points, but he’s still one of the best all-around defensemen in the League. He has a heavy shot (15 shots between 90-100 mph; 92nd percentile) and ranked second in the entire NHL in blocked shots (212) behind St. Louis Blues defenseman Colton Parayko (218). Seider, still only 23 years old, remains the biggest building block on the Red Wings as they came extremely close to ending their Stanley Cup Playoff drought (eight seasons; second-longest in NHL behind Buffalo Sabres’ 13) and look to take the next step this season.
And the Red Wings season preview concludes with 5 fantasy hockey point predictions from its fantasy hockey staff:
1. Dylan Larkin, F
NHL.com point projection: 80
He just recorded his third consecutive 30-goal season, the fourth of his career. Larkin’s 30 power-play goals over the past two seasons are tied for eighth in the League with David Pastrnak of the Boston Bruins and Zach Hyman of the Edmonton Oilers. Larkin should be considered a fringe top-40 forward in fantasy drafts this season.
2. Patrick Kane, F
NHL.com point projection: 68
In 50 games during his first season with the Red Wings, Kane had 47 points (20 goals, 27 assists). He ranked second on the team in even-strength goals (18) and second in shots on goal per game (2.94). Kane still has major offensive production potential given that he was nearly a point-per-game player last season and is three seasons removed from hitting the 90-point mark (92 points in 78 games with the Chicago Blackhawks in 2021-22).
3. Alex DeBrincat, F
NHL.com point projection: 73
He recorded 40 assists for the first time in his career and led the Red Wings with 237 shots on goal last season. DeBrincat’s 48 even-strength points ranked second on the team and he should be considered a 30-goal scorer with a full season on the top line.
I’m going to be honest here–I don’t think that DeBrincat’s going to score 45 or 50 goals for the Red Wings, but if he can break the 30-goal mark and add another 35-40 assists, he’ll have earned his salary.
