I get tired of this kind of mid-summer stuff, but here we are with me having the responsibility of bringing it to you, so:
- The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler “redid” his 2021 NHL Draft, and he argues that Simon Edvinsson should actually have been drafted 9th overall instead of 7th overall. In Wheeler’s re-draft, he has the Wings drafting Los Angeles Kings prospect Brandt Clarke instead:
Arizona Coyotes: LHD Simon Edvinsson
Actual draft pick: No. 6 (change: -3) to Detroit
My final ranking: No. 11 (change: +2)As with [Matty] Beniers, despite the fact that I finished lower on Edvinsson than where he got picked I was actually early onto him in the range that he eventually went, slotting him No. 2 on my preseason list after he blew me away on tape. I expect him to play a full-time top-six role for the Red Wings next year and while I don’t think he’s going to have as much offense as I thought he might at one point in time (I initially fell in love with his ability to handle the puck at 6-foot-6), his defensive ceiling is high and I think I landed in more or less the right spot on him in the end that year.
Continued (paywall); [sarcasm] yup, that Edvinsson, “selling” even the best draft experts on his talent because he skates so damn well, even though he may not develop into a Norris Trophy-winning, 70-points-a-season player… [/sarcasm]
2. And you will be equally shocked to find that The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn says that the Red Wings’ “contract efficiency” isn’t very good:
24. Detroit Red Wings
Last season: 23rd
A lot can change with where the Red Wings land depending on how much they sign Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider for. On max-term deals anything below $8.5 million for Lucas Raymond and $7.8 million for Seider would be seen as wins according to the model.
I’m guessing that both players will sign for somewhere around $8 million per season, and not a penny higher…
Those deals would need to be major wins, though, to make up for a lot of the damage done to Detroit’s cap sheet via free agency. Neither J.T. Compher nor Andrew Copp are delivering to the standard they’re being paid for and things may be even worse on defense. Justin Holl has become a regular scratch and Ben Chiarot delivers closer to replacement-level results than the $4.8 million he’s earning. In net, Ville Husso might be the team’s third goalie and is the most expensive one at $4.8 million himself.
Term isn’t too big of a factor with those deals so the problems don’t compound enough to land the Red Wings lower, but the team doesn’t have a lot of good-value contracts to save them either. Both Patrick Kane and Erik Gustafsson should deliver surplus value, but that’s mostly it.
Continued (paywall); as you know by now, the Red Wings have swung and missed in terms of some free agency moves, and that’s going to happen when you’re team-building.
I’m not going to defend the Red Wings’ free agency misses or Steve Yzerman here–he’s made some mistakes while building the Red Wings, there is no doubt, and those decisions may have slowed the rebuild somewhat, but shit is going to happen when you’re trying to utilize a flawed free agency marketplace to shore up a team’s depth chart.
You’re going to overpay in terms of money, you’re going to over-extend in terms of, well, term, you’re going to pick the wrong players from time to time, and you’re going to have to stumble over your own mistakes sometimes, because building a team out of the ashes of the previous managerial administration’s mess is an inexact science.
Steve Yzerman is a human GM, not a saint, the Red Wings’ management team is human, the Red Wings’ players aren’t all tremendous, player development is difficult, and even the coaching staff has made tactical errors.
The Red Wings need some roster tweaks in terms of sorting out its goaltending situation, there is a glaring need to add a right-shot, shut-down defenseman to spell Moritz Seider via trade, and the Wings are going to have to earn some luck in terms of both internal player and coaching growth and prospect development in the coming years if they are to escape the “mushy middle” of rebuilding teams.
That’s how I see it, and I’m effing human and biased as a Wings partisan, but I believe that the management, players, prospects and coaches can emerge from a successful rebuild in the next couple of years, even though it’s taking longer than the fans were hoping for.
We’re allowed to criticize, we’re allowed to be impatient, and we’re allowed to be frustrated from time to time, but there’s something to be said for having some faith in the process of team-building, too, though that faith should never be “blind.”
We deserve better than we’ve had. But sports is an inexact science, and it’s going to take some smarts and some luck for the Wings to truly battle for a playoff spot on a regular basis again.
You may disagree with me, and that’s fine. But we’re mostly on the same side here–we want to see Detroit do well in terms of its sports teams, and we’re all very impatient for the Wings to get the job done, which is normal.
