The Athletic’s Max Bultman offered answers to mailbag questions yesterday morning, and today, he offers more points of discussion in another mailbag feature. I have to roll my eyes at this question:
We don’t get high draft picks anymore, we haven’t made splashy trades for elite players, and we don’t seem to want to pay top-of-market in free agency. How do we get out of purgatory? — Jeff Z.
The toughest factor is that there aren’t many truly “elite” players that come available in the NHL. The Red Wings did make a splashy trade last summer for Alex DeBrincat, and as discussed above, I think it’s entirely possible they make more moves like that chasing higher-impact players if they come available via trade or free agency.
But the “purgatory” question is a real one. Right now, Detroit doesn’t look like a slam-dunk playoff team, but for as good as its farm system is, they also don’t have any bona fide superstars yet. It’s still possible that players like Raymond or Moritz Seider can become that, and I think players like Danielson and Edvinsson will be very valuable pieces when they mature, but the path from where they are now to being a legit Stanley Cup contender is going to take some real player development and scouting wins, and some luck. In some ways, that’s true of all teams, but it’s not a comfortable position to be in this deep into a rebuild.
I wouldn’t completely rule out getting any more high draft picks (though I guess it depends on what you define as high), but the Red Wings certainly have their work cut out for them.
The truth of the matter for most NHL teams in a rebuild is this: they don’t get draft lottery luck, so they have to draft as many good-to-great prospects as they possibly can with the assets they possess–and then develop those prospects into NHL players;
They don’t get the elite free agents to sign with their teams (with few exceptions, like Patrick Kane);
And they don’t begin their rebuilds with the greatest NHL rosters, so the fans of these teams have to deal with a lot of roster turnover before “their team” starts to stabilize after some successes and some failures in the team-building department.
The “mushy middle” theory is real for sure, but well-run teams who make some good picks and develop their young players eventually turn the ship around, even though it tends to take longer than both fans and management want (as Steve Yzerman himself has said).
There’s nothing to really panic about in terms of the Red Wings’ status as battling their way up the NHL standings while skating uphill. It’s really how most rebuilding teams rebuild, and there will be bumps in the road in terms of signing free agents that miss (see: Andrew Copp) and drafting prospects who don’t become NHL players…
But most teams have to endure this kind of rebuild. The smartest teams have management groups who play the “long game” in terms of player personnel, player development and coaching decisions.
We can only hope that Yzerman and his compatriots in the Wings’ front office earn a little luck and build the kind of team that eventually emerges from the “mushy middle” because it’s been properly built.
