The Hockey News’s Jason Chen posted a fantasy hockey preview for the Detroit Red Wings this morning, and he offers some…interesting…theories:
Breakout Star
It’s hard to pick one with so many players and moving parts to the roster. But if Lucas Raymond stays with Larkin and DeBrincat plays on the opposite wing, Raymond’s being set up for a potential 30-goal season. However, Larkin and DeBrincat take a lot of shots, and you wonder if there’s enough for Raymond. Maybe it doesn’t matter because Raymond will rack up the assists instead, and he certainly has been particularly effective on the power play with 27 assists over the past two seasons. Breakout campaigns depend heavily on a player’s minutes and usage, and no other prospect is assured of top-six minutes.
Regression Candidate
I just don’t see Daniel Sprong as a reliable scorer. His 26-goal pace was really surprising and his Individual Point Percentage skewed very high for the second straight season. IPP is the percentage of goals for that player’s team while that player is on the ice that the player earned a point on, with the league average hovering around 70 percent. Sprong was at 80 percent, according to naturalstattrick.com, which hinted he was among the league’s elite in driving play and generating offense, and he is obviously not that kind of player.
It’s not unheard of for a player to move around a little bit before figuring it out – former Kraken teammate Jared McCann also suddenly scored at a much higher pace last season – but it always raises a few eyebrows when it happens out of the blue.
Sprong has averaged just 12 minutes per game in his career, by the way, and he faces a lot of competition for a top-six role. This was a low-risk signing by the Wings on a one-year deal, but it just begs the question of what exactly is the Yzerplan in its current iteration because it all feels like a shotgun approach. As far as high-upside options go, there are surer bets than Sprong.
