The Athletic’s Max Bultman filed a lengthy mailbag feature today, and here’s a look at one pertinent question and answer:
I don’t believe I noticed anyone ask about Seider or Raymond extensions during press conferences so…. Any chance either of them sign a long term (or medium term) extension this summer? Assuming Seider more likely than Raymond. — Adrian K.
I’d be quite surprised to see Raymond extend this summer. There’s too much incentive for him to have a big season in 2023-24 before locking in with any kind of term. His talent level is so high, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if he’s a 60-point (or more) player next season.
Seider is a more interesting question, as you can make the case that there is an incentive for both sides to lock in now. From Detroit’s perspective, it would be trying to lock in a foundational defenseman for the long-term, before the cap rises. And from Seider’s perspective, well, what more can he really prove in the next year? Barring a top-10 Norris-type season, which would likely take a 60-point outburst in addition to strong defense, he’s already proven himself to be a No. 1 defenseman worthy of $8 million or more on the market. And who knows if it’s him or Gostisbehere getting the PP1 looks next season?
I haven’t heard any rumblings of an imminent extension with either, so we’ll see where it goes. But I agree that Seider is more likely than Raymond.
I’m most curious to see if the Red Wings are willing to go right to eight years with him, rather than bridging. Yzerman dealt heavily in bridge contracts in Tampa, but we’ve seen most of the game’s top-flight young defenders taking long-term deals straight out of entry-level contracts in recent years.
To me, Miro Heiskanen makes a lot of sense as a comparable. Seider actually has more raw point production at the same stage, which matters with contracts, but Heiskanen already had Norris votes to his name due to his elite defensive ability. The Dallas blueliner inked long-term for just shy of $8.5 million, which, on the projected $87.5 million salary cap for 2024-25, would be about $9 million. That, to me, would be a solid range for a long-term deal — with an $8.7 million cap hit to match Larkin as a possible logical conclusion.
Continued (paywall); Max is spot-on here. Heiskanen plays a similar game to Seider, and Dylan Larkin’s paycheck is likely the Red Wings’ “internal cap,” so if Seider signs a longer-term deal instead of a “bridge contract,” he’ll sign at the Wings’ maximum dollar amount for maximum term.
