NHL.com’s Dan Rosen was asked whether the Red Wings could make the playoffs this upcoming season as part of a mailbag feature. Here’s the pertinent part of his reply:
Based on what they have done, who do you think is more likely to make the playoffs, the Senators or the Red Wings? — @punmasterrifkin
That’s a tough call because I don’t think either is ready for the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season, but I like the Ottawa Senators’ chances slightly better because of their high-end scoring.
Ottawa’s expected top-six forward group of Alex DeBrincat, Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, Drake Batherson and Tim Stutzle combined for 367 points (166 goals, 201 assists) in 427 games last season, for per-game averages of 0.39 goals, 0.47 assists and 0.86 points. Each of the six has a chance to score at least 30 goals this season, and Tkachuk, DeBrincat and Norris each could score 40.
The Red Wings are solid up front with a projected top-six forward group of Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Jakub Vrana, Andrew Copp and David Perron. They combined for 317 points (145 goals, 172 assists) in 386 games last season, per-game averages of 0.38 goals, 0.45 assists and 0.82 points.
So, it’s close if you just go by those numbers, and it’s certainly reasonable to think Raymond, who had 57 points (23 goals, 34 assists) in 82 games as a rookie, will take a big step, and Vrana, who had 19 points (13 goals, six assists) in 26 games, will make a big impact if he stays healthy. But the upside of Senators’ top-six is better because of the expected continued growth from Tkachuk, Stutzle, Norris and Batherson, plus the additions of Giroux and DeBrincat.
Each team has a solid No. 1 defenseman, Moritz Seider for the Red Wings and Thomas Chabot for the Senators, but depth should be a concern for both. The goaltending is solid on both sides, Cam Talbot and Anton Forsberg in Ottawa, Alex Nedeljkovic and Ville Husso in Detroit. It’s unlikely any of the four will contend for the Vezina Trophy as the best goalie in the NHL, but it should be good enough to make the Senators and Red Wings playoff contenders. But comparing them side by side, it’s hard to give either team an edge.
So it goes back to the forwards, and while bottom-six scoring could be a problem for each team, the top-six scoring puts the Senators a notch above the Red Wings at this point.
Continued; the Senators are the hip and trendy pick to make the playoffs over the Boston Bruins at this point. I’m not certain what will happen or how things will shake out, either, but I’m confident that the Red Wings can at least make the Bruins sweat–and the Senators, too.
