It’s hard to get a positive word from The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn when it comes to the intersection of things statistically-inclined and Red Wings-related.
This morning, however, Luszczyszyn sings the praises of Moritz Seider’s “team-friendly” contract:
5. Moritz Seider
Contract: $8.6M x five years
Surplus Value: $41M
Positive Value Probability: 100 percentAnother new franchise defenseman on the scene courtesy of a seismic breakout, another deal in the neighbourhood of $8 million that’s aging beautifully.
When the Red Wings signed Mortiz Seider to this contract, his impacts in brutally tough minutes weren’t yet lining up with his reputation. Account for that and he was good, but not truly great. Not yet. All of that changed two seasons ago, and last year he took his game to new heights with a two-way season for the ages. While he didn’t ultimately end up with a plus-10 Offensive and Defensive Rating thanks to a tough final game, Seider came the closest any defenseman ever has.
His two-way ability is monstrous, and that’s what powers this valuation. Seider would be worth his deal if he were only a little bit above average offensively or defensively. That he’s this elite at both makes him worth nearly double his AAV.
Continued (paywall); I’m not even going to quibble with the “seismic breakout” part. Sometimes you don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
