A bit of praise for the Wings’ top line from Luszczyszyn

The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn doesn’t dole out praise for the denizens of Detroit very often, but he mentions the team’s top rookie (for the present moment) in his “16 Stats” column:

Detroit has had some bad lottery luck during its rebuild, but the Red Wings may have found a real gem in Lucas Raymond. The 2020 fourth pick has four goals and seven points in six games and has helped propel the team’s top line to an electric start. Both Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi are playing point-per-game hockey and together the trio has earned a 73 percent expected goals rate while outscoring opponents 6-0 in just 32 minutes of hockey. No other line has scored more goals-per-60 than Detroit’s top group at 11.4. 

There are obviously still some pieces of the puzzle missing, but the team’s start has been promising in seeing a path forward back to the playoffs. Detroit is top five in expected goals percentage this season at 57 percent and its top line is a big part of it. Moritz Seider having a strong start to his career on the back end has also been very helpful. He and Raymond look like real foundational pieces early on.

Continued (paywall); Wings fans are hoping that Raymond and Seider are indeed the “real deal.”

Tweet of note: 26 years ago, the Russian Five debuted

Per NHL History Girl on Twitter:

On this date in 1995, #RedWings debuted five former Soviet Union players: Sergei Fedorov, Viachslav Fetisov, Vladimir Konstantinov, Igor Larionov, and Vyacheslav Kozlov— Jen (@NHLhistorygirl) October 27, 2021

Also:

On this date in 1963, #RedWings Gordie Howe scored his 544th career #NHL goal, tying #Habs Maurice Richard for all-time leading #NHL scorer.— Jen (@NHLhistorygirl) October 27, 2021

A bit o’ power rankings talk from ESPN

ESPN’s Kristen Shilton posted a set of power rankings this morning, and the Red Wings’ status is summarized accurately:

22. Detroit Red Wings

Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: .583
Upcoming schedule: @ WSH (Oct. 27), vs. FLA (Oct. 29), @ TOR (Oct. 30), @ MTL (Nov. 2)

After five years of missing playoffs, the Red Wings’ youth movement is helping them turn a corner. Tyler Bertuzzi‘s scoring at a goal-per-game pace already, and Detroit’s got a pair of rookies — Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider — who are top five in rookie scoring. Add in a solid start from captain Dylan Larkin and it’s a little less surprising to see Detroit humming early.

Continued; credit’s due to Dylan Larkin’s scintillating start as well.

Khan in the morning: Larkin on Raymond

MLive’s Ansar Khan filed a column this morning in which Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin discusses the mental makeup of one Lucas Raymond, Larkin’s linemate:

“He doesn’t seem like a 19-year-old to me. He’s mature beyond his years,” Larkin said. “I feel like when I was 19, I made a lot of mistakes. I was skating a thousand miles an hour and had a lot to learn. Lucas, it seems like he plays on the right side of the puck, he doesn’t cheat much, which is of big value here. He plays the right way, and he gets rewarded for it.”

Raymond in Sunday’s 6-3 victory at Chicago, became the youngest Red Wing to record a hat trick since Steve Yzerman in 1985 and joined Yzerman and Gordie Howe as the only players under 20 in franchise history to record four points in a game.

“Obviously, we know the caliber of player, what he did to get drafted so high (No. 4 overall in 2020) and what he did after the draft,” Larkin said. “It’s early, but what he’s done is impressive.”

Larkin praised Raymond’s attitude and demeanor.

“Even from Day 1, whether he was (going to play) in Grand Rapids or he was playing on our team, it didn’t really matter to him,” Larkin said. “He wanted to play in North America. He wanted to play pro hockey. I think he really believed in himself and believed whether it was this year or next year, 10 games, two months, whatever it was, he was going to have an impact on this team.

“He had a quiet confidence about himself. It was never cocky. He really believed that, and I think he continues to believe that. He’s very humble with the success he’s had. Like every player in pro sports, you have your ups and downs, that’s how you really get through that. You keep a level head through the high times because the low times are there as well.”

Continued

Red Wings-Capitals set-up: the Mantha game

The 3-2-and-1 Detroit Red Wings face the 4-0-and-2 Washington Capitals on Wednesday night (7 PM EDT on Bally Sports Detroit/NBC Sports Washington Plus/ESPN+/97.1 FM).

Detroit snapped a 2-game losing streak via their 6-3 victory over the Chicago Blackhawks on Sunday, and the Red Wings are starting another stretch of 3 games to be played in 3 different locations over the course of 4 nights;

Our friends from Washington, D.C. are technically unbeaten at 4-0-and-2, and they most recently defeated the Ottawa Senators 7-5 on Monday–a game in which the Capitals scored the game’s first 4 goals, surrendered said 4-goal lead, and then roared out to 6-4 and 7-5 leads.

T.J. Oshie helped the Capitals’ cause with a hat trick, and Alex Ovechkin scored 2 goals.

Washington didn’t practice on Tuesday; the Red Wings did practice, finding out that Filip Hronek will replace Gustav Lindstrom (undisclosed injury) by default.

There’s a wealth of pre-game “stuff” available thanks to the Capitals’ fine website, as well as Field Level Media, which sets up tonight’s game with the following:

Continue reading Red Wings-Capitals set-up: the Mantha game

Allen’s notebook: Secondary scoring (they’re working on it)

Detroit Hockey Now’s Kevin Allen took note of the Red Wings coach’s take on the team’s lack of secondary scoring from, well, the second line:

The Detroit Red Wings’ second line of Robbie Fabbri, Pius Suter and Filip Zadina combined for 42 shots on goal in six games. The three players have combined for two goals. That’s a 4.7% line shooting percentage.

By contrast, the Red Wings’ top line of Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi produced 12 goals in 45 shots (26.7%). Detroit’s No. 3 line of Vladislav Namestnikov, Michael Rasmussen and Adam Erne scored four goals in 29 shots (13.7%).

“The Suter, Fabbri, Zadina line has had a lot of chances to have higher production totals than what they’ve had,”  Detroit coach Jeff Blashill said. “They have to stay with it…I think they can be a really good line.”

The Red Wings sit 12th in the NHL in scoring average (3.33). However, they would be significantly higher if their second line was producing more. Based on how well Fabbri and Suter were playing in the preseason, there was hope this line could be more of a 1B line than a second line.

Continued; the Red Wings do need Suter and company to step up, but there’s been progress in terms of their level of play, and Suter was going to take some time to adjust to the Red Wings. Here’s hoping that they get on track over the course of the next three games.

Prospect round-up, North America: Chase Bradley scores first NCAA goal in UConn win

In NCAA Hockey, Red Wings prospect Chase Bradley scored his first NCAA goal, finishing at +1 with 4 shots as the University of Connecticut Huskies 5-3 win over Northeastern:

Bultman discusses the reasons why Filip Hronek was scratched

The Athletic’s Max Bultman examines the reasons why the Red Wings have scratched Filip Hronek for two straight games, and, while Bultman cautions that everyone from the Red Wings’ own coach on down cautions against overexamining small sample sizes, the advanced stats regarding Hronek’s play aren’t very good:

Hronek’s on-ice expected goals for percentage at five-on-five was at 41.5 percent after his first four games, according to Evolving Hockey, and that mark is the lowest of all Detroit defensemen so far. The same is true by the on-ice scoring chances share, where, according to Natural Stat Trick, Hronek’s 33.93 percentage was at the bottom of all Red Wings blueliners. Again, I don’t think those stats are what have Hronek out of the lineup, and the samples are disconcertingly small, but they do tell a bit of a story about what Detroit’s results have been like with Hronek on the ice so far this season.

It’s also worth noting that many of Detroit’s other defensemen have turned in quite good underlying numbers. Again, the same caveats apply, but Stecher, Staal, Lindstrom, Leddy and Seider are all over 58 percent by Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model thus far. For Stecher that’s in just two games (a sample small enough to be effectively irrelevant), but it’s a grain of context as to how things have gone so far for Detroit’s defensemen.

On-ice stats, of course, do not assign responsibility for those results, and they don’t give any context to the level of competition. They merely indicate what happened when a player was out there. And Hronek and partner DeKeyser (who naturally is Detroit’s next lowest-ranking defender after Hronek by both xGF% and SCF% through his six games) tend to play some of Detroit’s toughest minutes.

In the Red Wings’ home games so far (where Detroit has last change and can better pick its matchups) DeKeyser and Hronek received a steady diet of Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov against Tampa Bay, Elias Pettersson and Nils Hoglander against Vancouver, Patrik Laine against Columbus, and Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk against Calgary.

Obviously, those minutes and matchups are not created equal to the ones played against other lines, often by other defensemen. That matters.

Continued (paywall); as Bultman suggests, Hronek’s raw data over the course of only four games played isn’t good, but it’s hard to say whether Hronek’s struggles are part of a larger trend when the Red Wings have only played in six games total.