Daily Faceoff’s Larkin grades the DeBrincat trade

Daily Faceoff’s Matt Larkin grades the Alex DeBrincat trade this morning, and here’s what he has to say about the Red Wings’ one-player haul:

The Red Wings haven’t even had a 35-goal scorer in 14 years. The last to do it was Marian Hossa, who had 40 in 2008-09, the year before he embarked on his long and fruitful tenure with the Chicago Blackhawks. DeBrincat instantly becomes Detroit’s top pure goal-scoring threat since Hossa. DeBrincat owns a pair of 41-goal seasons, he’s a three-time 30-goal scorer and he’s scored at least 27 goals in five of his six NHL seasons. His “down” 2022-23, in which he slipped from 41 to 27 goals after the Blackhawks traded him to Ottawa, came while playing most frequently with rookie Shane Pinto as his center. In Detroit, DeBrincat should get frequent ice time with captain and strong play driver Dylan Larkin. Because DeBrincat and Raymond also both have the ability to play either wing, coach Derek Lalonde will have the option of loading up for a super line, too.

So we have a team trying to break through as a playoff contender, desperate to improve its offense, snatching one of the league’s better goal-scorers away from the team that finished directly above them in their own division. The Wings, flexing their extreme leverage in this situation, get DeBrincat and only have to lose middle-six winger Dominik Kubalik from their current starting lineup in the process. And best of all, they get DeBrincat at a reasonable AAV that will pay him through the rest of his prime.

I almost have no notes, here. Finally, Detroit adds a legitimate top-line NHL forward, and the cost was extremely reasonable.

Continued; the Wings earn an A and the Sens get a C-.

Update: Daily Faceoff’s Nick Alberga also weighs in on DeBrincat’s fantasy hockey value:

Continue reading Daily Faceoff’s Larkin grades the DeBrincat trade

Detroit Hockey Now, Chicago Hockey Now compare teams’ respective rebuids

Detroit Hockey Now’s Kevin Allen offers a link to a fine article by Chicago Hockey Now’s Nate Brown, who compares the statuses of the rebuilds of the Red Wings and Chicago Blackhawks:

Chicago Hockey Now writer Nate Brown is comparing Chicago’s rebuild to various NHL teams going through rebuild. Today, Brown compares the Blackhawks and Red Wings rebuild scenario.

Brown writes: “The way Detroit fell into a rebuild was strikingly similar (to Chicago): Once a contender, early playoff exits, poor drafting, and an inability to move on from players past their prime.

Of course, the most major difference in their rebuilds is the Blackhawks won the lottery and landed a generational player in Connor Bedard. The Red Wings have had no luck in the lottery whatsoever.

Brown says the Blackhawks should be thankful for their lottery luck.

The Red Wings, dating back to 2017 when they first qualified for a lottery shot, have either stayed even or fallen in every draft,” Brown writes. “That includes the 2020 one, where the league changed lottery rules as a result of the wailing over Detroit falling three spots after having a historically bad year. Yzerman literally started from scratch.

Continued

The Score weighs in with DeBrincat ‘trade grades’

The Score’s Nick Faris gives the Red Wings an A- and the Ottawa Senators a B- in terms of “trade grades” in the DeBrincat deal. Here’s his rationale for the Wings’ mark:

Until Sunday, Detroit lacked elite attacking talent. This franchise has starved for offense throughout its seven-year playoff drought. The Red Wings haven’t finished higher than 22nd in NHL scoring since 2015, back when DeBrincat and Connor McDavid lit up Ontario Hockey League goaltending as Erie Otters teammates.

DeBrincat excels alongside superstars. He racked up 160 goals in five seasons – 32 per year – with the Chicago Blackhawks as Patrick Kane’s frequent linemate. Last season, he barely got to play with skilled centers Tim Stutzle (Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux were the Senators’ top wingers) or Josh Norris (who injured his shoulder and sat out all but eight games).

DeBrincat’s stats slipped in Ottawa. He scored 27 goals on a shooting percentage of 10.3%, well below his 15.5% average in Chicago. He also regressed defensively: The Sens were outscored 58-42 in DeBrincat’s five-on-five minutes, per Natural Stat Trick.

Sensing an opportunity, the Red Wings capitalized. General manager Steve Yzerman reeled in a proven sniper from the Detroit suburb of Farmington Hills to complement Dylan Larkin on the top line.

The cost of landing and extending DeBrincat was modest. His average annual value is substantially lower than Larkin’s $8.7-million cap hit, not to mention the $8.8-million AAV that Timo Meier just procured from the New Jersey Devils.

His contract projects to be team-friendly. If DeBrincat shoots as often as he did in Ottawa and his success rate normalizes, he’ll be the first Wings player to flirt with 40 goals since Marian Hossa buried that many in 2009. Even in a down year, DeBrincat’s 11 power-play tallies ranked in the top 30 league-wide. His presence on the PP will divert attention from Larkin and elevate the whole first unit.

DeBrincat isn’t solely a triggerman. He shone as a playmaker in 2022-23, dishing a career-best 39 assists. He also remained aspirationally durable. DeBrincat has never been injured in the NHL, only missing four games during the 2020-21 season when he was placed in COVID-19 protocol.

Continued

97.1 the Ticket’s Burchfield’s bullish on the DeBrincat deal

97.1 the Ticket’s Will Burchfield weighs in regarding the Alex DeBrincat trade this morning:

Suddenly, this is a team that can, and arguably should, expect to make the playoffs next season for the first time in eight years. DeBrincat is that good, and that suitable to the Red Wings’ biggest need, a two-time 40-goal scorer who looks like a natural fit next to Dylan Larkin, a burgeoning playmaker in his own right. Yzerman had added depth and toughness to Detroit’s roster this offseason, especially to the middle two forward lines. DeBrincat adds top-line talent.

“Good teams have depth. I think we have some depth. We would all love a couple of big-time scorers,” Yzerman said last week after a series of free agency signings. “We’ll continue to work at that, and how we go about it is a bit of a challenge.”

Don’t be fooled by DeBrincat’s size. The 5’8 sniper is about as big-time as they come. His 187 goals are 14th most in the NHL over his six-year career. He’s one of only four wingers with multiple seasons of more than 40 goals in the last five years, a list otherwise comprised of Ovechkin, Pastrnak and Robertson. DeBrincat also scored at a 50-goal pace in the COVID-shortened season of 2020-21, when his 32 goals trailed only McDavid and Matthews. When it comes to putting the puck in the net, this is the company he keeps.

Critics will understandably point out that DeBrincat is coming off a down season in which he scored just 27 goals and finished minus-31. We’d only counter that 27 goals still would have ranked second on his new team and that his shooting percentage is likely to rebound to his career norm after a rather precipitous drop last season. And that even if it doesn’t, DeBrincat’s plus-minus should benefit from the Red Wings’ improved defensive structure under Derek Lalonde.

Continued

Lambert: Red Wings’ other players have to step up for DeBrincat to be their ‘guy’

EP Rinkside’s Ryan Lambert weighs in as to the boost that Alex DeBrincat may or may not be able to bring to Detroit this morning:

Detroit is making a solid bet here. The money’s fine, the acquisition cost was pretty good, and DeBrincat no doubt makes them better. This would have been a difficult trade for them to not-win, and in the end they won handily. 

The concern, I think, is that this just nudges them up into the “Buffalo and Ottawa” tier of Eastern Conference also-rans. Which, as noted several days ago, just ends with them picking 15th or so for the foreseeable future. The Senators brought in a better crop of players last summer than Detroit has since the free agency window opened, and it didn’t get them very far.

The real issue for the Red Wings is that they absolutely need Raymond and Berggren and even Moritz Seider to take additional steps. It’s not impossible, and DeBrincat certainly raises the floor on what they’re going to achieve this season and at least the three beyond it.

But let’s not get too out over our skis about this being any kind of rebuild extender or youth movement. DeBrincat is only a year and a half younger than Larkin, and doesn’t have a lot of room left to grow as a player. He is what he has been.

It’s up to him, his teammates, and the coaching staff to ensure that’s closer to the 40-goal guy he was in Chicago than the 25-goal guy he was in Ottawa.

Either way, though, is an offensive weapon they got for a shockingly low price. So Wings fans should be happy with the outcome. Even if this was the only place he was ever going to wind up.

Continued (paywall)

Tweet of note: Numbers game

For your entertainment purposes, the Red Wings are offering a signed jersey to a fan who picks Alex DeBrincat’s number:

Morning Khan: Red Wings fans ‘thinking playoffs’

MLive’s Ansar Khan filed an early-morning column which discusses the optimism surrounding the Red Wings’ trade for Alex DeBrincat:

For the first time since their 25-year playoff streak was snapped in 2017, the Detroit Red Wings will head into a season with legitimate aspirations of getting back to the postseason.

That wasn’t the case 10 days ago when general manager Steve Yzerman made a flurry of free-agent signings that amounted to depth moves which seemed to improve the roster marginally at best.

The outlook changed Sunday, when Yzerman acquired Alex DeBrincat, the bona fide goal-scoring threat the Red Wings so desperately needed.

On top of a team-friendly contract for a two-time 41-goal scorer (four years at an average annual value of $7.875 million), the Red Wings didn’t weaken their current roster, relinquishing what will be the lowest of their two 2024 first-round picks, expendable winger Dominik Kubalik, fringe defense prospect Donovan Sebrango and a fourth-round selection.

This was the kind of move many were waiting for Yzerman to make when he took over in 2019, the type of trade that only makes sense if a team is on the verge of competing for a playoff spot, which the rebuilding Red Wings were nowhere near during the former captain’s first four years.

Continued

The Athletic’s Mendes: DeBrincat isn’t the ‘bad guy’ in Sens’ trade with Detroit

The Athletic’s Ottawa Senators correspondent, Ian Mendes, passes judgment on the Alex DeBrincat trade from a Senators perspective this morning:

Not all trades are created equally, which leads us to Alex DeBrincat and his departure from the Ottawa Senators. There are rare instances in hockey where there is no “bad guy” per se in a trade. And the DeBrincat deal to Detroit might be one of those transactions.

Consider that DeBrincat never asked to be traded to Ottawa last summer. And he didn’t exactly demand a trade out of Ottawa this summer either.

And these two sentences seem to perfectly encapsulate DeBrincat’s brief stay in Ottawa. DeBrincat wasn’t an explosive and dynamic sniper in Ottawa. But he also wasn’t an abject failure either.

He scored 27 goals and 66 points, while carrying a minus-31 rating.  Any positive element of his game seemed to be mitigated by a negative one. In many ways, it was a zero-sum game during his tenure in Ottawa.

And that’s how a lot of Ottawa fans might classify the return on his trade with the Red Wings. Not terrible — but certainly not great either.

Continued (paywall), and Mendes argues that the Senators will be judged on what GM Pierre Dorion does with the rest of his cap space over the balance of this summer…