All posts by George Malik

My name is George Malik, and I'm the Malik Report's editor/blogger/poster. I have been blogging about the Red Wings since 2006, and have worked with MLive and Kukla's Korner. Thank you for reading!

Accentuating the negative

In the “They’re not gonna make it!” category this morning, ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski handicaps the playoff chances of the NHL’s 32 teams today, and he’s understandably not optimistic about the Red Wings’ stead…

Detroit Red Wings

Record: 12-14-4, 28 points
Playoff chances: 13.4%

The Red Wings actually have a better probability for making the playoff cut than some of their Eastern Conference rivals, despite being projected to finish with 83 points. Detroit was 26th in the NHL after 30 games (.467), which put it about the same distance from the league basement as it did the last wild-card spot in the East.

As long as the goaltenders are either Cam Talbot or Alex Lyon, the Red Wings have had a chance to win on most nights. But they’ve squandered a lot of those chances — and a decent 5-on-5 defense — with one of the worst penalty kills in the league (67.5%), and an offense that doesn’t seem to exist outside of the top-line trio of Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond.

Cause for concern: The NHL has seen its share of teams in which one line carried them to the postseason bubble. As good as the Larkin line is offensively, it has only a 43% goals-for percentage at 5-on-5 because it gives up so much the other way. But at least the line scores: Outside of that trio, the Red Wings don’t have another forward with more than 14 points through 30 games. That’s not going to cut it in the East.

Continued; there’s no doubt that the Red Wings have often become a top-line-only team over the course of the first 30 games, but that’s a solveable problem…

And The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman discusses the struggles of the Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators thus far, with Goldman blaming the Red Wings’ roster-building instead of the results of the roster that the team is, thus far, anyway, stuck with:

Continue reading Accentuating the negative →

Wings notebooks of note: On one-goal games, save percentages and injury updates

Of belated Red Wings-related note:

  1. The Detroit News’s Ted Kulfan filed an afternoon notebook article which discusses the Wings’ increasing comfort level with playing in one-goal games…

10 of their last 13 games have been decided by a single goal. And even in those three other games, the Wings scored a late empty-net goal in two of the games for victories, while Philadelphia did likewise in the other. They are 3-4-3 in those one-goal decisions, earning nine of a possible 20 points.

The Wings have won 2 of their past 3 games, however, as coach Derek Lalonde emphasized:

“Again, I may sound like a broken record, but what is a little bit frustrating in our big picture is that five-game stretch, and our process and underlying numbers, they are easy to pick apart when you’re winning and not as easy pick apart when you’re losing, but whatever the reality is, the bottom line is finding ways to win games,” Lalonde said. “We need to slip some of those tight games, and we’ve done that in two of our last three to get some traction here.”

Playing in these games where a single mistake can decide an outcome one way or another, has become natural lately for the Red Wings. And in the Toronto win, there was a definite sense the Wings were confident and at ease.

“It helps to be comfortable in those situations, and find ways to win,” Lalonde said. “Hang in there with your game and make that play, and be comfortable in those situations, which I thought for the most part against Toronto, we were comfortable in that game. That game felt comfortable throughout, despite the fact you could tell their elite, high-end guys were on top of their game.”

2. Detroit Hockey Now’s Kevin Allen posted an article discussing the state of the Wings’ goaltending, as evidenced by Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon’s respective save percentages…

Continue reading Wings notebooks of note: On one-goal games, save percentages and injury updates →

Video: Kane and Lalonde speak with the media after Monday’s practice

During Monday’s Red Wings practice at the BELFOR Training Center, Cam Talbot made a quick appearance, Dylan Larkin took a “maintenance day,” and Marco Kasper remained out sick.

After practice, coach Derek Lalonde told the Red Wings’ media corps that it’s Alex Lyon who will probably be ready to return to action Wednesday against Philadelphia, that Larkin will practice tomorrow, and that Kasper may practice tomorrow, with Talbot aiming for a Friday return.

The Red Wings have posted a video in which forward Patrick Kane and coach Derek Lalonde speak with the media:

Building up offense from the blueline

The Red Wings haven’t received much scoring from their blueline this season, but Jeff Petry (1G, 1A) and Moritz Seider (1G) posted goals during Saturday’s 4-2 victory over Toronto. As such, MLive’s Ansar Khan asked Petry and Seider what the team can do to generate more offense from the team’s blueliners:

The Red Wings have struggled to produce. They rank 28th in goals per game (2.57), a significant decline from last season when they finished ninth (3.35).

Part of that is due to less offense from the defense, which isn’t unexpected after they lost Shayne Gostisbehere (10 goals, 56 points) to free agency and traded Jake Walman (12 goals, 21 points).

The Red Wings ranked seventh in the NHL in goals (44) and points (188) from defensemen in 2023-24. They’re currently in the bottom five in that category (10 goals, 48 points).

Petry said they’ve talked about creating more offense from the back end.

“Cycling the puck, getting it low to high, getting bodies to the net,” Petry said. “I think just creating that shot-scramble mentality, and I think that opens up space for plays to be made but also rebounds that are sitting there. When you’re not putting the puck in the net as often as you’d like, I think you get some of those greasy, gritty goals, and I think that just kind of lifts you up.”

Seider leads the team’s defensemen with four goals, including two in the past three games, and 16 points.

“Obviously, not the primary job, but I would say it’s a really good feeling,” Seider said. “I think we can do a better job of just getting pucks to the net, especially from the blue line, creating a little bit of chaos in front of the net and let the forwards do their work net-front, and hopefully we (defensemen) can chip in a little bit of offense that way.”

Continued; I know that Seider’s “primary job” isn’t to generate offense, but it never hurts to rip a slap or snap shot from the point toward the goal. Larry Murphy of all people proved to me that you don’t need to have a snap shot that breaks a pane of glass to facilitate offense.

Post-practice Tweets: Larkin had a ‘maintenance day,’ Talbot’s not ready to go vs. Philly

As MLive’s Ansar Khan and the Free Press’s Helene St. James reported, Red Wings goaltender Cam Talbot made an impromptu appearance at Monday’s practice, but he did not stay out for long, and both Dylan Larkin and Marco Kasper were absent.

After practice, coach Derek Lalonde spoke with the assembled media corps…

Tweets from Monday’s practice: Talbot skating, Larkin, Kasper absent

Per MLive’s Ansar Khan, the Red Wings hit the ice at Little Caesars Arena’s BELFOR Training Center around 11 AM this morning, preparing for Wednesday’s home game vs. Philadelphia:

I heard from an uncle of a friend…

I try not to diss other people’s points of view here. I don’t feel that it improves the conversation that TMR tries to start by saying, “Well, this is utter bullshit.” But I’m pretty close to suggesting as much regarding Daily Faceoff’s Hunter Crowther’s assertion that the Red Wings’ GM is about to be fired because the team is in revolt or something, per a set of power rankings:

25. Detroit Red Wings

Record: 12-14-4, -16
Last Week: 26th (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 25th
Scott’s Rank: 24th

Hunter [Crowther]: Too often I hear the phrase “the murky middle,” which usually refers to the “No Man’s Land” of professional sports where teams aren’t good enough to compete, but aren’t bad enough to tank for a draft pick. I’d say the Red Wings are closer to being a bottom feeder, but they still have moments where you wonder, “maybe they’re not that bad.” But believe me: they’re bad. And after chatting with my partner whose whole family is from Windsor, Ont., which shares a border with Detroit, when Steve Yzerman comes up, it’s not a matter of if he’s losing the plot, but a matter of when he loses his job.

Please understand: Steve Yzerman is going to be the Red Wings’ general manager for the foreseeable future. He’s an easy scapegoat for the Wings’ struggles as the rebuild’s buck stops with him, but even Yzerman has tempered expectations for his team’s on-ice performances throughout his free agency signings…

And I just don’t understand this whole, “Yzerman is going to be fired!” dynamic when the reality of the situation is that he is, for better or worse, the GM for as long as he wants to be the GM. That’s how it works in the Ilitches’ organization, and that’s how it’s going to work.

My hockey-obsessed relatives in Metro Detroit insist that they have the inside track on what’s going on with the Red Wings’ airtight nuclear submarine in terms of rumors of air bubbling to the surface…

But the Red Wings’ ship runs silent and runs deep, never needing to surface to replenish its air supply, so we are all left to speculate as the GM very purposefully doesn’t share clues as to his motives or machinations.

Wolak on the rebuild

The Hockey Writers’ Tony Wolak wrote up a really excellent article about the status of the Red Wings’ rebuild this morning, and he addresses the reality of the team’s mixed results with building through both the draft and the hit-or-miss world of free agency:

Putting all of this together—where the team started, Yzerman’s actions, the ratings, and the uncontrollable/external variables that the organization has had to navigate—it’s fair to say that Detroit’s rebuild is progressing and has been successful thus far. The on-ice product is coming along, but the prospect pipeline is the true indicator of success, and the Red Wings have a great stable of young players.

If there’s one point of contention, though, it’s the 2022 offseason. Detroit’s many acquisitions propelled them out of the NHL’s basement into the mushy middle. Key additions Andrew Copp and Ben Chiarot have been disappointing during their tenure in Hockeytown. Plus, their bloated, long-term contracts have hamstrung the organization. 

This challenge of becoming a slightly improved team—yet still falling short of playoff contention—coupled with reduced salary cap flexibility has become a focal point for critics of the Red Wings’ rebuild. However, the situation is more nuanced, and much of it ties back to the five-stage Yzerplan outlined earlier.

The acquisitions of Chiarot, Copp, and David Perron were strategic moves designed to support Seider and Raymond following their stellar rookie seasons. These veterans were brought in to foster meaningful competition within the lineup and to mentor Detroit’s young players.

Moreover, Dylan Larkin was approaching unrestricted free agency the following summer. There may have been pressure to accelerate the team’s progress and demonstrate a promising future to secure Larkin’s commitment. Losing him—whether through a trade or as a free agent—would have been a significant setback to the rebuild’s trajectory.

Given this, I reject the notion that “being bad for longer” was a realistic strategy for the Red Wings. If anything, Detroit’s salary cap management and/or pro scouting should be criticized, not the high-level direction of the team. The latter has proven to be successful thus far.

Continued

Allen: Petry scored only one goal on Saturday

Detroit Hockey Now’s Kevin Allen reports that the NHL chose to take away one of Jeff Petry’s goals in the team’s 4-2 victory over Toronto this past weekend, awarding the first goal of the game to Michael Rasmussen instead:

Detroit Red Wings defenseman Jeff Petry went to bed Saturday with nine career multiple-goal NHL games and sometime Sunday the league decided he only had eight.

The league made an official scoring change Sunday, giving Michael Rasmussen credit for a tip-in on Petry’s shot. Petry is now credited with an assist. Joe Veleno also had an assist.

Detroit Red Wings defenseman Jeff Petry went to bed Saturday with nine career multiple-goal NHL games and sometime Sunday the league decided he only had eight.

The league made an official scoring change Sunday, giving Michael Rasmussen credit for a tip-in on Petry’s shot. Petry is now credited with an assist. Joe Veleno also had an assist.

When the goal was scored, Rasmussen was shown on replays celebrating like he touched the puck on its flight to the net. But there wasn’t clear evidence of that on the replay seen in the press box. The NHL must have had other views of it. Petry had not scored this season before Saturday.

It is hard to see a tip on this replay:

Petry will tell you that it doesn’t matter to him who actually scored the goal, but guys do take points of pride from their successes.

Bultman on the Wings’ rebuild

The Athletic’s Max Bultman answers a whole bunch of “When Should The Red Wings Blow It Up?” questions in a mailbag feature this morning, but I would argue that the last question Bultman answers is far more pertinent than, “Who should the Wings trade away”:

Detroit, Ottawa and Buffalo have been expecting a jump for three years now and the Atlantic standings haven’t budged. Has the parity of the league stagnated, or do these cycles just take longer than we think they should? — Nathan R.

The cycles do take longer than I think anyone wants to admit. Retools, where teams keep a few young stars and build around them, can go quicker, but from a true teardown and rebuild, I think these teams do reflect just how hard it is.

It’s natural to believe you can do it faster “if everything goes right.” But everything very rarely goes right, and without some good fortune (such as winning multiple draft lotteries), it’s easy to get stuck on the way back up.

That doesn’t mean those teams haven’t made mistakes to prolong their timelines, of course. I’m sure Buffalo regrets some trades it has made after watching former core players win Stanley Cups elsewhere. And I can’t help but wonder if some of those moves were made out of frustration for how long the process was taking.

But the reality is, there’s no easy, proven way to complete a rebuild on the quick, unless you get really lucky — either in the draft or some other way. The New York Rangers, for example, had Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox practically force his way into their lap, had a Hart Trophy candidate (Artemi Panarin) pick them in free agency, had a fourth-round pick turn into the best goalie in the world (Igor Shesterkin), and got a No. 1 pick from the draft lottery. That doesn’t happen for most teams.

Eventually, I believe all three of Buffalo, Ottawa and Detroit will get through these miserable years. But I don’t think anyone knows exactly when it will happen, including them.

Continued (paywall); with unrestricted free agency being a hit-and-mostly-miss endeavor, the truth of the matter is that teams need to build from within–and get lucky in terms of non-drafted player personnel additions–in order for what are honestly 10+ year rebuilds to “gain traction,” and Detroit’s arguably shown a couple more flashes of competency than the Sabres or Senators over the course of the past two seasons (though few this year)…

But it’s going to take time and some good fortune for the Wings to truly exit the second tier of the Atlantic Division From Hell. That’s not a good thing or a bad thing; it’s just the truth.