I must admit that I feel little to no excitement regarding tonight’s draft lottery (7:30 PM EDT on CBC/NBC). The Red Wings have an 8.5% chance of earning the top pick and a 26.1% chance of landing a top-three pick, but it’s more probable that the Wings will actually end up picking sixth instead of their current fifth spot, and I’m not thrilled about that.
There are some good media offerings regarding the draft and draft lottery today, with WDIV’s David Bartkowiak Jr. providing something of a draft primer, and MLive’s Ansar Khan produced a fine scouting report on the top twelve ranked skaters…
The Athletic’s Craig Custance also wrote a superb article regarding the slim probability that the Wings might land Dahlin, and it’s his words that explain why I’m trying to not be stung too hard by the high probability that the Red Wings don’t end up with the first overall pick:
“What stands out the most about Dahlin is his poise with the puck,” [Nicklas] Lidstrom wrote in an e-mail to The Athletic. “Especially playing against men in the SHL. He doesn’t seem to panic with the puck.”
He’s exactly what the Red Wings need. They need impact players. They need a top-pair defenseman. They need a young player who can play 28 minutes per night and control the course of the game. They don’t have it on their current roster. They don’t have that player in the system.
Landing him would speed up the process considerably. There’s not a compelling case for the Red Wings to pursue Tavares or defenseman John Carlson in free agency this year if they’re picking anywhere but first. But land Dahlin, and the expectation is that the Red Wings will throw their hat into those conversations. They’re not alone on this front among NHL teams.
In 2019, they’d love to be in on one of the big free-agent defensemen: Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson or Erik Karlsson. Dahlin gives them a good reason to push in free agency and gives those three a legitimate reason to listen.
Custance continues (paywall), and while I fully believe that the Red Wings are going to try to bid for Carlson and Tavares (there have been indications that the Wings are interested in the latter player for a while now), it’s my job to prepare for the worst-case scenario, and every scenario in which the Wings don’t finish with Dahlin–a 91.5% probability–is worse than the best, so you’ll have to forgive me for not sharing your enthusiasm.
Similar feelings to yours, George.
No conspiracy theories needed.
The odds just weren’t good and there was little reason to
hope irrationally and then immediately be disappointed.
It’s a shame the Wings weren’t quite bad enough to have a legit chance at picking higher, in a draft like this. Holland keeps talking about the high risks and unlikely rewards of rebuilding in a more serious way, but here is exhibit A for why a truly rebuilding team that accrues fewer points can be better off: a chance to either pick a generational talent at the most important and hardest to find position in the game. Or, at least a chance to pick a sure-fire sniper or the best of the rest of a very good group of defensemen.
Holland can not see the long term and how to make moves that will give the Wings the best shot at a better rebuild.
He can not think past today as evidenced by his dementia riddled speeches.
KH is far past his prime. I just hoped we wouldn’t pick at a worse position.
But using the pick(s) worries me a lot!
Why is fatty not on your case about making fun of Holland with dementia a mental health thing hmmmmmmmmmm?mmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
I really believe KH is losing it. He just babbles on and on , then repeats himself sometimes with content.
Just find him annoying to listen to or dead about.
Then again Blashill will start up soon and he might be worse, LOL
Is it October yet??